Today, we we took a look our daily 15 day US HDD forecast from 11/1/22 through 1/16/23. This exercise can help identify internal biases + help us improve.
Clients can read our blog with plenty of supporting material on the HDD landscape from Nov-Jan here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142868
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Ed Vallee
@EdValleeWx
Husband | Meteorologist | CT native in Florida | NY Jets fan | Personal Account - my opinion means nothing unless its weather or #Jets related
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Interesting tidbit here re: weekend cold in the Northeast.
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The cold snap coming to the Northeast Friday into Saturday looks impressive. So much so that it appears to be the coldest 850mb temperature in the NAEFS database (1979-2009) 00z Saturday February 4th. #natgas #energy
More here: satable.ncep.noaa.gov/naefs/#
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A brief, but intense bout of near record cold is expected Friday into Saturday in the Northeast.
Clients can read more about this event here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142533
#natgas #cold #energy
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How does February 2023 look to evolve relative to other years since 1960?
Our latest blog discusses how our HDD forecast stacks up to other years for some perspective: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142457
#natgas #energy
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ERCOT Ice Storm and Potential Renewable Generation Impacts...clients can read more in our latest blog: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142447
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Who had LGA (low of 7°F, 12/24) having a colder winter-to-date low temp than Burlington, VT (8°F) or Concord, NH (8°F) on their bingo card?
That all ends soon, though. Impressive cold on the way to the Northeast. Clients can read more here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142426
#natgas
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Our morning commentary has been issued detailing weekend changes and a peak in the cold this week before a moderation.
Clients can read more here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142374
#natgas #energy
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This is a great group. Just sayin'.
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Ok, twitter friends, we have a virtual peer group we hold and have held every Thursday for the last 3+ years.
We're looking at opening it up to a few folks, so if you're interested in a weekly conversation that centers on cash grain and overall market fundamentals shoot me a dm
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Our AM commentary has been issued, detailing overnight changes and an update regarding the much colder airmass coming to North America in the next few weeks. Is the peak of the cold in?
Clients can view our full HDD and weather model round up blog here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=142005
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I had a lot of fun doing this article yesterday. If you're in the energy markets (or just follow intel on cold weather) and a client of I suggest giving this one a read! #natgas
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Is the EPO teleconnection providing a glimpse into N. America's weather downstream? It certainly has been doing a good job of late if we correlate -EPO to above normal HDDs...
Clients can read more about this teleconnection and recent colder trends here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141832
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AG2 not only gives clients the best weather forecast, but also insight into the risks surrounding the forecast using AG2's Forecast Risk Index (Frisk) and Ensemble Cluster Graphics. Clients can check out our latest blog for a current real-world example: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141806
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How cold does the 6-15 day look compared to past years? Our latest blog takes a look at the next 15 day and the month of February HDDs here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141795 #Natgas #energy
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Stratospheric polar vortex update! Blog available here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141688 Although warming is forecast at upper levels, this anomalous warmth however is not forecast to propagate down through the atmosphere and couple with the troposphere which is needed for surface impacts
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Morning commentary has been issued detailing some colder weekend shifts and a brief foray of cold in the East in the 11-15 day period.
Clients can read up on weekend changes and analysis here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141719
#natgas #oott #energy
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#Drought in #California continues to improve thanks to recent heavy moisture.
More impressively, if CA doesn't see another flake of snow through 4/1, it'll still have an above normal season statewide!
New client blog on this topic: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141573
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The latest set of 00z ECMWF model guidance continues to show a stratospheric warming event at the 10 mb level. This is an indicator of a potential disruption in the polar vortex. However, it is still unclear as to the intensity and the location of the polar vortex displacement.
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Morning commentary has been issued discussing some colder times ahead, but also some warmer risks to the forecast late in the 11-15 day.
Clients can read the latest here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141429
#natgas #energy
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Commentary has been issued for N. America, discussing a much colder pattern arriving for the final week of Jan. Significant HDD add noted in our AM forecast vs. Friday!
Clients can read the latest HDD + model round up issued this AM here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=141135
#natgas #energy
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My two passions in this life are weather and the jets. I do weather for a living, so in my spare time you can hear me complain about the jets. Give it a listen!
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NEW PLAJ PODCAST #Jets 2023 Offseason Roundtable #1 w/@EdValleeWx
-What went wrong at the end of 2022?
-Level of faith in Saleh/Douglas
-What should be done at QB?
-Potential moves that could be made in FA/draft
& more
Listen Below!
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/epi
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🚨🚨🚨🚨NEW PLAJ PODCAST #Jets 2023 Offseason Roundtable #1 w/🚨🚨🚨🚨
-What went wrong at the end of 2022?
-Level of faith in Saleh/Douglas
-What should be done at QB?
-Potential moves that could be made in FA/draft
& more
Listen Below!
🔽
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/epi
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POTENTIAL STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT COULD INDUCE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING FEBRUARY
Atmospheric G2 clients can read our latest insights here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140868
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Now seeing the first forecasts of a complete stratospheric polar vortex split, as odds of a late Jan/early Feb SSW continue to increase. Our seasonal forecast updates for clients coming next week. Details here: blog.wsitrader.com/wp-admin/post.
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#California continues to see heavy rain/snow and this will continue through early next week. The result has been significant #drought improvement, while the Plains remain in a serious drought situation.
Clients can read a full update on the drought here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140967
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Colder trending U.S. weather forecast in the next two weeks driven by negatively-phased Eastern Pacific Oscillation. AG2 clients can read more about it in our latest blog: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140805
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Record warmth has been occurring in TX in the past few days + more record warmth is expected next week!
Record highs are possible in places like Houston, San Antonio, and Waco early next week.
Our latest blog details some of these temperature forecasts: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140825
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Mark it down: January 11th is the day I finally realized I was writing 2022 on everything still.
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Our morning commentary for North America has been updated. In a recent blog post, we discuss how models continue to trend colder in the 11-15 day and provide some perspective to our current HDD forecast and trends.
Client link to blog: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140663
#natgas #energy
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Mammoth Lakes, 1/10. Snow is over waist deep. Snow poles are just over 7 feet tall. It’s up to the bottom of my second story roof now. Finally the big dump we’ve been waiting for!
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#California continues to be pummeled by heavy rain and snow, which is tremendous news for their ongoing drought.
Clients can read the latest on the upcoming active pattern in the West here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140583
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Holy moly.
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EPS increasing to 9km resolution this summer and increasing to 101 ensemble members. Just when you thought the euro was king…#AMS2023
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Recently took a trip to Mexico with the fam. It was pretty fantastic. Life is much better these days filled with new career challenges, new colleagues, new friends, and a new outlook.
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Atmospheric G2 continues to keep our clients updated on the latest weather model guidance with regards to sudden stratospheric warming and its impact on the polar vortex.
AG2 clients can read our insights in our latest blog:blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140472
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The pattern across N. America continues to lean to the warmer side as the Pacific pattern has been unfavorable for sustained cold since the end of December...but are things changing in the 11-15 day?
Clients can read our latest HDD update here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140439
#natgas
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Perspective can help traders, analysts, and meteorologists craft an appropriate response to anomalous weather and this month is a perfect time to do it. Warm? Yes. Record warm? Actually, yes!
Our latest blog analyzes Januarys since 1960, including 2023: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=140480
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Our morning commentary has been issued, detailing quite a warm pattern over the coming days. Did you know the first 10 days of January have the potential to be a top 3 warmest start to the month since 1960?
Clients can read our latest HDD blog here: blog.wsitrader.com/?p=139453
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See! I’m not crazy!
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The National Weather Service in Melbourne can confirm that sleet, also known as ice pellets, has occurred near the Rockledge, Viera, and Merritt Island areas in Brevard County.
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No really. On Christmas Day. Holy shit.
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Guys it’s sleeting here in rockledge
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About as impressive of a cold shot as you see any time of year. Freezing as far south as Tampa, Orlando, and Melbourne, FL...
Christmas Eve morning temps from the GRAF model, powered by IBM, below.
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