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The BoC's Carolyn Wilkins said in a speech today that Canada isn't at risk of turning into Japan. Too bad because in Japan, real per capita GDP is expanding whereas in Canada, it's contracting!
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So long as you ignore the declines in order backlogs, employment, prices, vendor performance, inventories and net exports, it was just a dandy ISM non-manufacturing report today!
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If you believe the ADP number that just came out then you de facto believe that productivity is declining at a 1% annual rate. Great for margins, but since when have fundamentals mattered to equities?
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Quite the coincidence. The ISM manages to surprise with a 50.9 print, but with only 44% of industries reporting any growth. Exact same metrics (headline print and share of industries reporting growth) as in January 2008... the first month of the recession that so few saw coming.
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This is going to take a lot of patience, I get it, but I have to believe this virus-induced slump in energy stocks is going to be a great buying opportunity. Cheap & great yields. Nobody seems to be paying too much attention to the supply side, which is actually constructive.
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Hard to fathom why the BoE opted to weigh a post-election and tentative rebound in business sentiment over outright contraction in the real economy.
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For all the chatter of how wonderful the highly concentrated SPX has performed (till lately, that is), the bond-bullion barbell has outperformed this year by a hefty 460 bps! Is that in your 401k??
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My team just informed me that Tesla actually lost close to $1 Bln on a GAAP basis but the headlines all said posted their first annual profit (thanks to all the non-GAAP adjustments). That's all it takes for the algos and retail crowd to jam the stock higher.
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The Fed changed two words in its press statement. Must have been a really exciting FOMC meeting.
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For anyone who needs a primer on why Treasury bond yields are as low as they are, think of the interplay between investment and desired savings. Great take on this in the current Economist (page 57) titled "The Great Treasuries Binge"https://econ.st/2RYlDBY
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Kudos to Scotiabank CEO Brian Porter for his support for reinstating democracy in Venezuela. Libertad para el pueblo!https://bit.ly/37zWBjb
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I am definitely not sure what to make about this chart except that if you’re looking for a raise, move to Richmond and get a job in a hotel.pic.twitter.com/UW7GOC9RWL
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Defense stocks have been re-rated for a reason… contained in this chart of rapidly expanding order books.pic.twitter.com/gNLW4iR0jQ
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Check out David Rosenberg's interview with Edward Harrison from Real Visionhttps://www.realvision.com/the-bond-bullion-bonfire …
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Capex back in recession with consecutive quarterly contractions in core durable goods shipments after the soft December data. When the fastest growing segment of GDP is declining imports, you know the cleanest economic shirt in the global laundry basket is pretty soiled itself.
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Our 2020 theme, if you recall in our year-ahead, was to maximize liquidity and minimize leverage. Go long one 'L' and short the other.
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It's not too late to de-risk. In fact, it's still early. No private equity. No private debt. No leveraged credit. No cyclical equities. Stick to long-duration Treasuries, gold, reliable dividend-payers and get growth with aerospace/defense.
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Kobe Bryant was a giant. On and off the court. It’s a tragic loss. But let’s learn from his legacy. Hard work, dedication, focus. I am particularly struck by his generosity and strong sense of community.
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If we go to a long bond of 1%, the total return on the zero-coupon 30-year Treasury would come to 50%. For those who would prefer to go the route of equity-like returns without taking on equity-like risk. (2/2)
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As a long-standing unabashed bond bull, I recommend a read of “Yield Caps on the Table in Next Recession” on page A2 of today’s WSJ. This program, as an aside, was intact for much of the 1950s (the threat alone was so credible that the Fed never did have to buy one bond). (1/2)
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