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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky May 13

    Uber, if you can't master stats and ML well enough to predict that a meal not yet picked up from a restaurant 10 minutes away will take longer than 6 more minutes to get to me, I'm not getting into one of your self-driving cars.

    5:03 PM - 13 May 2018
    • 48 Retweets
    • 311 Likes
    • Our Ideas Landon Ponek Finn Wilcox 🎃E. Harding🎃 Gustavo Lacerda Female Violence Cruz Hastings Էդգար/Эдгар/إدكار It's a Mia
    14 replies 48 retweets 311 likes
      1. joshcryer‏ @joshcryer May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I wonder if the drivers have pressure to get a meal to you in an allotted time. ie, if this is signaling by the corporation to force Snow Crash's Hiro-style delivery speeds.

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
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      1. Matt Bell‏ @mappum May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Maybe they've mastered stats and ML so well that they've learned over-optimistic predictions increase the likelihood of ordering again in the future. But probably not.

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Christoph Burschka‏ @cburschka May 14
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Maybe they're optimizing for optimism rather than accuracy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Luke Oakden-Rayner‏ @DrLukeOR May 14
        Replying to @cburschka @ESYudkowsky

        Quite literally their financial strategy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Maximilian Roos‏ @MaximilianRoos May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Whatever you're about to order is already in transit

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      2. राहुल | Rahul | /ɾäɦul/ | راہول  🇮🇳‏ @missingfaktor May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        This doesn't sound terribly rational when you consider the fact that in companies as large as Uber, those two teams would normally function pretty much independently of each other, almost like two separate companies. Not ideal but that's how it is in most cases.

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Madhurjya Roy‏ @mroyme May 13
        Replying to @missingfaktor @ESYudkowsky

        He probably knows that. The point is while it's great to be working on bigger plans, they should at least put some effort to get these little things right.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Jay‏ @jayzmax May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        It's not that they haven't mastered ML, rather they HAVE mastered time travel through tachyon manipulation.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Anna Gát‏ @TheAnnaGat May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Please keep us posted how this turns out

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Madhurjya Roy‏ @mroyme May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @jeremyphoward

        Also, a taxi 10 km away from your pick up point can't have an arrival ETA of 2 minutes, even if traffic is scarce.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 1 more reply
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      2. Corey Keyser‏ @KoreyCeyser May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Im convinced its intentional. Some weird signaling. They know it takes more than 5 minutes. We know that as well and we know that they know, but we like the possibility that it is actually 5 minutes and they are happy to keep us in our comfortable delusion.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mo‏ @MuhammadPuter12 May 14
        Replying to @KoreyCeyser @ESYudkowsky

        If we know that as well, why would we like it? I'm certainly annoyed as hell by it, it e.g. throws off multistep plans with others

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Mo‏ @MuhammadPuter12 May 14
        Replying to @MuhammadPuter12 @KoreyCeyser @ESYudkowsky

        In fact I tend to recalibrate using scale factor 2 and a nontrivial prop. of the time it's still behind schedule

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Corey Keyser‏ @KoreyCeyser May 14
        Replying to @MuhammadPuter12 @ESYudkowsky

        Well I guess what I'm saying is that we wouldn't actually use the service as much if we really knew how long it'd take. So i think they are playing on that and although we mostly know that the estimates are shite, we still hold out for the low chance when it is correct.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. Chris Canal‏ @chriscanal4 May 14
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Lmfao

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Aditya N. Joshi‏ @1adityajoshi May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @Quebec_AI

        I think it’s more likely that it’s a software bug that could be fixed by writing more (unit) tests

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Daniel Houck‏ @daniel_houck May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Maybe they're right on average. I was told a meal that had *already been delivered* would take another 15 minutes.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jimmy Smits Jr.‏ @JimmySmits23 May 13
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        plus the time it takes the driver to jizz in the meal.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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