Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

Tweets

Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Mar 29

      https://xkcd.com/1968/  is #TheLastDerail in a nutshell. I can try to imagine hypotheses, but I'm not sure why Randall Monroe thinks this a clever thing to say. If I wrote a fictional character saying this straight out, I'd be accused of writing a 2D straw character.

      5 replies 6 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Kaj Sotala‏ @xuenay Mar 29
      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      Not saying that I would agree with Monroe, but it seems pretty clear to me why he might think that "I'm more worried about a concrete risk that's looming right now than a long-term speculative one, let's focus on first getting through the urgent one" would be important to say.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Mar 29
      Replying to @xuenay @ESYudkowsky

      These are really two different topics, one with high probability and moderate impact, and one with unknown probability and terminal impact. They should not be conflated despite both being somewhat related to AI.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
    4. pastinaco‏ @pastinaco Mar 30
      Replying to @Plinz @xuenay @ESYudkowsky

      Calling the impact of autonomous weapons "moderate" requires a hyperlocal -- some would call it parochial -- perspective.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 1
      Replying to @pastinaco @xuenay @ESYudkowsky

      Someone who cannot realize that hundreds of thousands dying is a moderate problem when compared to everyone dying is lacking perspective, no?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. pastinaco‏ @pastinaco Apr 1
      Replying to @Plinz @xuenay @ESYudkowsky

      No. The point was that n100k deaths only looks "moderate" because you're comparing to something from a different epistemic category. One thing already happens but you can't see it. The other (the hyperlocal one) is literally all in your head.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
      Replying to @pastinaco @xuenay @ESYudkowsky

      The probably of super human level AI within less than 100 yrs is close to 100% imho. The probability that we can make ALL AI safe is low. Still, even if you put AI Xrisk at 0.001%, you ought to worry more about it than about fully automated predator drones, no?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Apr 2
      Replying to @Plinz @pastinaco @xuenay

      If AI Xrisk were under 5%, we would have more important xrisks to worry about. I have always refused this line of argument, and people on the other side of this debate are correct to see it as a poor way of thinking. It fosters neglect of the arguments on probability.

      9:50 AM - 2 Apr 2018
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @pastinaco @xuenay

          I did not make a claim about the actual probability here btw. I also reject the idea that we should only worry about the biggest xrisk we can find. It might be a good idea if particular people specialize on particular worries.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. pastinaco‏ @pastinaco Apr 2
          Replying to @Plinz @ESYudkowsky @xuenay

          FWIW I agree with this. This specialization is (non-locally) valuable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. pastinaco‏ @pastinaco Apr 2
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @Plinz @xuenay

          Very sensible. But the percentages are irrelevant if there is in fact a category error at the root of the comparison. Admittedly this is an "empiricist or rationalist?" thing, but the "billions die" position is purely conjectural. #TheLastDerail position is not.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Joscha Bach‏ @Plinz Apr 2
          Replying to @pastinaco @ESYudkowsky @xuenay

          Why? The idea that fully automated drones would increase the number of victims of military confrontations is conjecture as well?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. pastinaco‏ @pastinaco Apr 2
          Replying to @Plinz @ESYudkowsky @xuenay

          Again, risk of fully automated drones killing n humans (at human behest) can be assessed empirically right now. It's 1.0, for some definitions of "human" and "fully automated". The "everyone dies" xrisk is extrapolated from a model with no empirical constraints.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2018 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info