https://xkcd.com/1968/ is #TheLastDerail in a nutshell. I can try to imagine hypotheses, but I'm not sure why Randall Monroe thinks this a clever thing to say. If I wrote a fictional character saying this straight out, I'd be accused of writing a 2D straw character.
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I am not sure if we disagree/if so, what about. Yes, it was non-neutral and a putdown.
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Sorry, the part about excessive charitableness was to
@xuenay above you.
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Out of curiousity, do you estimate that risk 2 is worsened by xkcd applying social pressure to folks who are panicking about risk 2 but haven't considered risk 1? (not that I think RM is somehow intentionally being strategic. just wondering.)
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Risk 2 is worsened by people who think they can gain status by putting down the act of talking about it. Risk 2 is also worsened by people who are thinking panicked instead of computer-sciencey thoughts about it. Not considering Risk 1 is fine; it's unrelated to Risk 2.
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I didn't say it was neutral or that it wasn't a putdown. I said that having the view that "AGI gets too much attention and is worth a putdown" is a view I can see a smart and reasonable person arriving at given certain knowledge, even without having a desire to pander to normies
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That is, on whether the comic was produced 1) mostly by tribal signaling and no actual thought, or 2) mostly by a thought-out position. (to be clear, it *could* have been 1 too, but assuming that to be *obvious* explanation seems wrong)
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If you call "Other people worry about long-term AI risks, I worry about mid-term AI risks" a putdown of those other people, you are being a bit oversensitive. (FTR, I also think the ratio of effort towards these risks is not ideal.)
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I can't prove that it's intended as a putdown obvi but the use of terms like "seem to worry about" suggests to me he doesn't view it as a legit concern. It *seems* dismissive to me :)
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Ok, that *seems* fair :) though that signal is pretty weak. I understand how frustrating for people who are invested 100% in the long-term risk is that someone is distracting from that goal. Just to let you know that we may also act rationally, just assess differently.
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