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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Mar 28

    Is there any standard name for the fallacy of a study that doesn't consider obvious substitution effects? "Our meta-analysis of 200 studies PROVES that banning sales of purple knives decreases deaths involving purple knives. Ban purple knives now!"

    7:29 AM - 28 Mar 2018
    • 12 Retweets
    • 99 Likes
    • Francisco Geoffrey Miller Jon Shea Casey Capshaw Martin Jambon Dick man dealerwither Tomasz Kaye (bitbutter) Graham Diana S. Fleischman
    17 replies 12 retweets 99 likes
      1. Modern Lars‏ @larspetrus Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        It may just have been named "Purple Knife Fallacy".

        0 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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      1. Taylor Kendal‏ @taykendesign Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I’ve read a similar study proving that the sale of yellow knives decreased deaths involving purple swords #BanColors

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Andy Probasco‏ @tmdBrassMan Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        "didn't consider substitution effects" feels pretty concise considering how often this comes up in conversation

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. Brian‏ @banjaloupe Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        arguably not a fallacy-- in some cases, (purple knife deaths)!=(yellow knife deaths)!=(deaths) e.g. imagine "knife color gangs" (would only use a purple knife), or knife color access associated with 3rd invisible factor, etc. not illogical to treat purple knife deaths as own end

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Brian‏ @banjaloupe Mar 28
        Replying to @banjaloupe @ESYudkowsky

        (if the purple knife gang is disproportionately responsible for deaths, and wouldn't kill without another colored knife, banning purple knives reduces overall death while preserving the rights of the less-death-causing yellow knife gang)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Brian‏ @banjaloupe Mar 28
        Replying to @banjaloupe @ESYudkowsky

        (more concretely, this is what we see with suicide rates https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4984734/ … in this case, men appear to be in the purple knife gang, where gun access seemingly does afford suicides that wouldn't have happened otherwise)

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Skelly Jelly‏ @pyromuffin Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        blunting occam’s razor

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Thinking out lout‏ @takesuoutswitch Mar 29
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Dude, you wrote a whole book on rationality. Put a couple thoughts behind this then apologize for how fucking stupid it is.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Dwight Gilbert Jones‏ @humanism Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Stop talking sense!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Marco‏ @itsokaytodance Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Progressivism

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. David Owen‏ @davidowen_sd Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        another shill for the purple lobby. The colors of Benetton are on your hands.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Brontes hammer‏ @NIFTYNEC Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Ban purple knives immediately if not sooner!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Keir‏ @keirrketel Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        This reminds me of all those advertisements saying eating grains lower your cholesterol when in reality you are just substituting oatmeal for eggs and not actually lowering what was measured, only replacing it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. voltpathDOTca‏ @voltpathDOTca Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        politicized. i agree that few guns reduce gun crime, but you're talking about a country that has exponentially more weapons in the hands of civilians than in the hands of each branch of it's serving military and civil service combined. i would sooner compromise than force it out

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. voltpathDOTca‏ @voltpathDOTca Mar 28
        Replying to @voltpathDOTca @ESYudkowsky

        i been trying to find people who care about restoring a warriors code philosophy to the use and discipline of firearms. commenting on all. not a single like, or reply. imagine it.. a code that sustained armed societies for countless generations is nonsequiter by today's standard

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I'd just call it economic illiteracy, given that any term used for this will only be understood by those who are economically literate. (But it's frequently a slightly different issue, writing about research while ignoring caveats that are in fact listed in the analysis.)

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Lucas Stoten‏ @lucasstoten Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Your way of speaking and writing is just a pleasure to bare witness to.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Noah Topper‏ @NoahTopper Mar 28
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Call it the Unethical Treatment of Elephants Fallacy, a la @fotc.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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