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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
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@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Mar 8

    Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted

    Modern weather forecasters are by far the best-calibrated predictors you will ever see on television. Humans are so horrible at probability that this looks to us like being wrong all the time--they say 60% chance of rain but are wrong 4 times out of 10! https://twitter.com/OfficeOfMike/status/971505825033478145 …

    Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

    This Tweet is unavailable.
    7:01 AM - 8 Mar 2018
    • 43 Retweets
    • 253 Likes
    • The Legendary Dragon Alephwyr, named Alephwyr Nestacdo little_bit007 Zorro mercenario daijirinkun David Ohayon ICO Hunter Airborne Wind Energy Systems Thatcher Ulrich
    7 replies 43 retweets 253 likes
      1. Paul Crowley‏ @ciphergoth Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        You probably already know about "wet bias", but putting it in your replies for anyone clicking on your tweet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_bias  tl;dr forecasters deliberately overforecast rain.

        0 replies 3 retweets 9 likes
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      2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Generally correct, but probability of precipitation (PoP) is tricky. If 40% of an area will get rain with 50% confidence, PoP=20%, but people are non-stationary, so p(Person sees rain | rain occurs over 40% of area) > PoP. So some forecasters adjust upward...

        2 replies 3 retweets 7 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. Ruminative Orangutan‏ @Ruminorang Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I’ve been waiting for a prominent voice to take a stand for weathermen everywhere ✊

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. entirelyuseless‏ @entirelyuseles Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        They have the calibration, but do not use it. They tell you a higher probability of rain than they believe, because they know people are more upset if it rains when they suggested it would not, than if it does not rain when they suggested it would.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. iFrank‏ @WillTell999 Mar 8
        Replying to @entirelyuseles @ESYudkowsky

        this describes dishonesty, not ineptitude. doctors may do something similar when you have a serious illness.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Shamed Maschewitz‏ @ShakedDown Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Msm are also significantly better calibrated than any commonly used alternative (easy to complain about cnn, but compare Infowars/Breitbart to it).

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. The Feather‏ @YellFeat Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        TV weather forecasters actually deliberately overestimate chances of bad weather, because they're more likely to get angry letters from people who got wet than from those who brought umbrellas they didn't need.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. M'Bengue Issa Moukelé 🇰🇵 🇯🇴‏ @cephei_hr Mar 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        He is not a stats major

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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