You probably already know about "wet bias", but putting it in your replies for anyone clicking on your tweet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_bias tl;dr forecasters deliberately overforecast rain.
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Generally correct, but probability of precipitation (PoP) is tricky. If 40% of an area will get rain with 50% confidence, PoP=20%, but people are non-stationary, so p(Person sees rain | rain occurs over 40% of area) > PoP. So some forecasters adjust upward...
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I’ve been waiting for a prominent voice to take a stand for weathermen everywhere
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They have the calibration, but do not use it. They tell you a higher probability of rain than they believe, because they know people are more upset if it rains when they suggested it would not, than if it does not rain when they suggested it would.
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this describes dishonesty, not ineptitude. doctors may do something similar when you have a serious illness.
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Msm are also significantly better calibrated than any commonly used alternative (easy to complain about cnn, but compare Infowars/Breitbart to it).
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TV weather forecasters actually deliberately overestimate chances of bad weather, because they're more likely to get angry letters from people who got wet than from those who brought umbrellas they didn't need.
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He is not a stats major
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