Arguments against various arguments for why future AI progress might be discontinuous, from @AIImpacts:https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/ …
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Replying to @Miles_Brundage @AIImpacts
There's a lot of steps in this argument that need to be spelled out in more detail. Hopefully I get a chance to write that up soon. But it already raises the level of debate by a lot, for which I am grateful.
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E.g. it is not intuitive to me that "But evolution wasn't trying to optimize for STEM ability" is a rejoinder to "Gosh hominids sure got better at that quickly." I can imagine one detailed argument that this might be trying to gesture at, but I don't know if I'm imagining right.
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The argument is expanded upon inhttps://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ …
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Yes! An argument in this style and level of detail is much easier to respond to. As expected from Christiano.
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