Arguments against various arguments for why future AI progress might be discontinuous, from @AIImpacts:https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/ …
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Replying to @Miles_Brundage @AIImpacts
There's a lot of steps in this argument that need to be spelled out in more detail. Hopefully I get a chance to write that up soon. But it already raises the level of debate by a lot, for which I am grateful.
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E.g. it is not intuitive to me that "But evolution wasn't trying to optimize for STEM ability" is a rejoinder to "Gosh hominids sure got better at that quickly." I can imagine one detailed argument that this might be trying to gesture at, but I don't know if I'm imagining right.
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Similarly it's hard to pin down which arguments say "Average tech progress rates tell us something about an underlying step of inputs and returns with this type signature" and which say "I want to put the larger process in this reference class and demand big proof burdens."
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