Arguments against various arguments for why future AI progress might be discontinuous, from @AIImpacts:https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/ …
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Similarly it's hard to pin down which arguments say "Average tech progress rates tell us something about an underlying step of inputs and returns with this type signature" and which say "I want to put the larger process in this reference class and demand big proof burdens."
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The argument is expanded upon inhttps://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ …
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Yes! An argument in this style and level of detail is much easier to respond to. As expected from Christiano.
End of conversation
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