Get quantum mechanics right the first time before anyone has a chance to screw it up, do the same in science stats, do the same in decision theory, and hope future generations remember what I said about AGI. Plus all the stuff that goes without saying.https://twitter.com/ThatEricAlper/status/962188018978193408 …
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I hope you back tested on a few universes in case of unintended consequences
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Don't worry, I only named interventions whose results I could all foresee! That's why I didn't include giving Hitler a scholarship to architecture school.
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I feel like what happened with Germany in 1930-45 was so close to pessimal that rolling the dice by enticing key players to go off and do something else is almost certainly a large improvement.
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On second thought, I do *kinda* see your point; there are unforeseeable consequences if you take the other big players around that time into account.
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Surely sticking a bullet through Hitler's head (and perhaps all the other early Nazis for certainty) is easier than getting all the Ashkenazis to move?
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I didn't say that immediately because I'd have to think hard about what happens with the Soviet Union and nuclear weapons if you shoot Hitler. They weren't fun times but there were worse possible outcomes for that decade and I don't know offhand how to reroll those dice.
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You'd have a better chance preventing AH from getting elected than convincing the Ashkenazis that they are in danger. Basically you need to find an authoritarian, law-and-order-and-firm-hand but humane and non-bloodthirsty leader. One of the Prussian generals.
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Yeah good luck convincing anyone to unilaterally abandon gold standard, or being more persuasive than Fleming about penicillium.
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The leaded gasoline thing x 100.
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How are you qualified to do all these things? Sure you could introduce the ideas, but how do you plan to command such powerful influence over millions of people to actually effect the changes?
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With that much timeline disruption, we'd be certain to wind up in some dystopian bizarro-world where we all have lizard-tongues or some shit.
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Fun to see a smart person answer this question.
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Most of those require resources other than advance knowledge. How would you get people to listen to you in time to (e.g.) implement NGDPLT?
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Oh, I got confused on the dates. A decade should be enough time to get some influence, though I’m not sure you could manage all of that even if you could manage any one thing. As long as you prioritized sensibly it probably would be worth trying, though.
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At a time when modern GDP statistics have barely been begun, his going to tell everyone they should drop the gold standard because of something called "NGDPLT"?
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Wouldn't preventing the Great Depression also prevent the Keynesian economics from gaining broader acceptance?
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