When an eminent AI scientist claims to know the timelines of the field for the next three decades, they are usually speaking uninformatively. When they tell you that you can't get to Artificial General Intelligence just by doing X, they are usually correct.
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You can get to AGI with Y, though. Or Z. Or
. And even if the eminent author has some ideas about Y, they haven't thought about Z, and even I've never considered
. Deepmind could be working on
right now. And that's the problem with trying to guess timelines.Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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But can you get there with infinitely many squirrels jumping on keyboards?
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I can do it with a mere googolplex of squirrels if I have any way to filter their output.
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Clear to me that what you admit here does NOT imply "therefore, AlphaZero is zero evidence of proximity to AGI" but that's a step where you lose people. You can't get to 250mph improving tires on a carriage, but how do you update timeline estimates based on advances in tire tech?
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