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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Feb 8

    It says something about the insane persistence of "sheerly obviously blatantly wrong math and all experts and many non-experts know it" social equilibria that anyone still talks about the Dow Jones Industrial Average, ever. (Averaging unweighted per-share stock prices = crazy.)

    1:57 PM - 8 Feb 2018
    • 54 Retweets
    • 226 Likes
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    14 replies 54 retweets 226 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Geoffrey Irving‏ @geoffreyirving Feb 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        This is why I use a randomly weighted average. It takes a bit of getting used to, but it's worth the effort.

        3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Rogs‏ @ESRogs Feb 8
        Replying to @geoffreyirving @ESYudkowsky

        Why that instead of market cap weighted?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Erik Bjäreholt‏ @ErikBjare Feb 9
        Replying to @ESRogs @geoffreyirving @ESYudkowsky

        Pretty sure he is joking.

        0 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. John Chandler Burnham‏ @John_C_Burnham Feb 8
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        So how much money have you made betting against DJIA and S&P 500 correlation?

        1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. gwern‏ @gwern Feb 8
        Replying to @John_C_Burnham @ESYudkowsky

        And how much money have you made betting against dice roll and DJIA correlation?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. John Chandler Burnham‏ @John_C_Burnham Feb 8
        Replying to @gwern @ESYudkowsky

        None. Strangely, no one will take the other side of that contract. Let me know if you're up for it though!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. gwern‏ @gwern Feb 8
        Replying to @John_C_Burnham @ESYudkowsky

        Plenty of people would take it for the right price. That price doesn't make you a profit, though. Almost... like... one... can't... profit... off... randomness. Funny how that works.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      6. John Chandler Burnham‏ @John_C_Burnham Feb 8
        Replying to @gwern @ESYudkowsky

        But you can profit off the insight that weighting an index by the capitalization of its components produces a better signal than not doing so. People had this insight, they profited, and 60 years ago they created the S&P500, which is such a weighted index.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. John Chandler Burnham‏ @John_C_Burnham Feb 8
        Replying to @John_C_Burnham @gwern @ESYudkowsky

        So if you want to say that market participants are irrational, don't understand statistics, and you know better, great! I hope you make lots of money by teaching us how to price correlation better!

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      8. gwern‏ @gwern Feb 8
        Replying to @John_C_Burnham @ESYudkowsky

        A number is just a number; that people talk about it doesn't make it important, & observing that it's a dumb number isn't the claim that it's creating *market* inefficiencies which can be exploited. If a journalist talks too much about the DJIA, how do you make money, pray tell?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      9. John Chandler Burnham‏ @John_C_Burnham Feb 8
        Replying to @gwern @ESYudkowsky

        Sell correlation swaps on DJIA and S&P500 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_swap …. If the market is mispricing the effect of journalists talking about DJIA instead of S&P500 (say by effecting their audience's trades), then you can make money when DJIA and S&P vary more than expected.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      10. 6 more replies
      1. Daniel Eth‏ @daniel_eth Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Well what do you expect them to do? Talk about the S&P500 instead???

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Now Here Not There‏ @nowherenorthere Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Optimal weighting schemes are overrated. Non-crazy weighting mostly suffices.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Josh Suich‏ @jsuich Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        In the immortal words of the prophet Christine McVie "Tell me lies. Tell me sweet little lies." We deceitfully cherrypick our data for comfort and ease of digestion while actively blocking disturbing and complicated sets that put an intellectual metabolic load on our tired brainspic.twitter.com/vKOE6lbqO6

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Keith Robison‏ @OmicsOmicsBlog Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @BioInfoBrett

        Agreed - but what is correlation with the intelligently weighted S&P500 -- isn't it remarkably high?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Brett Bowman‏ @BioInfoBrett Feb 9
        Replying to @OmicsOmicsBlog @ESYudkowsky

        When you can explain >95% of the variance in any one stock's movement by the overall market move - No. You'd get a more accurate, if sightly more volatile barometer by picking any one blue-chip stock at random and using that as your proxy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Locking My Bikes With A Blockchain‏ @Lionofflanders Feb 10
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I was 7 years old (in 1973) when my father (an engineer & attorney) explained this to me. Many people are idiots...idiots want simple ways to comprehend complexity and therefore to "win" ... ergo the Dow as a benchmark

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Cat BOOOOOOO!p, LLC.‏ @catpoopburglar Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Honestly though the correlation with the S&P is high enough it’s hard to care that much

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. State & Metro‏ @StateandMetro Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Let's hear it for the S&P 500!

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Andrew Morton‏ @ajmortyuk Feb 9
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        No it' It's also that the WSJ owns it so always lists it first.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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