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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Feb 5

    I'm amused by the fact that cryptocurrency is dropping in tandem with broader markets. Probably a coincidence? Or maybe there's some reason those two asset classes should be correlated? But right now it's like: oh, just another correlated financial asset there, nothing special.

    10:09 PM - 5 Feb 2018
    • 12 Retweets
    • 87 Likes
    • Faria Chowdhury David Q Thucydides Joseph Maxim Howden Jonathan Andrew Bardia C137 Gwyn Richards DEFCON 1 ☢️☠️☢️
    15 replies 12 retweets 87 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Cam‏ @ckraus501 Feb 5
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        $BTC started descent before S&P500 - likely weak correlation... #onemansopionion

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky Feb 5
        Replying to @ckraus501

        Obviously the stock market boom was driven by investment from cryptocurrency millionaires!

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Cam‏ @ckraus501 Feb 5
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        money was flowing to crypto-->bubble. There was some profit taking, but I suspect not enough asset switchers to inflate stocks. When bubble burst, there was a rush to sell, which could have been boon to stocks, but that's not what we saw. Likely culprit fear over monetary policy

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Cam‏ @ckraus501 Feb 5
        Replying to @ckraus501 @ESYudkowsky

        (again, i'm just spit-ballin here)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. Michael Flynn‏ @Mjfl92 Feb 5
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        when people speculate, they buy when they are confident, and sell when they are scared.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Joey Miller‏ @joe_miller0 Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        If they *never* dropped in tandem with broader markets, then they'd be correlated...

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Brian Donohue‏ @ennuigogo Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Risky assets become highly correlated at the worst times.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Alex Evanghelidis‏ @aevanghelidis Feb 5
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Isn't there a several orders of magnitude difference between the market caps? Like saying leviathans hang out with whales.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Casey Dahlin  🌐‏ @AmericanTeethSM Feb 5
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Definitely suggests that, if it must be one or the other, crypto is an asset not a currency.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Conrad Barski‏ @lisperati Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I'm guessing just a pure and simple coincidence- any attempts to incorporate the two drops into a unifying hypothesis just make my brain hurt.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 1 more reply
      1. An Aging Scientist‏ @ddhewitt68 Feb 19
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Margin calls.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Locking My Bikes With A Blockchain‏ @Lionofflanders Feb 10
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Perhaps it's a function of lots of excess cash sloshing around....and the dumb money had to go somewhere....so it went to building froth at the top of equity markets & cryptocurrency.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. H‏ @ArbiterZ Feb 7
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Hmmm.... money moving to treasury bonds and corporate bonds. The market cap of crypto dropping by more than 50% (I believe smart $ is out) and the biggest drop in points for the DOW. Oh did I mention we’ve been on the longest bull run in history?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. H‏ @ArbiterZ Feb 7
        Replying to @ArbiterZ @ESYudkowsky

        OH and we are well overdue for a market crash. Nothing but coincidences. 🤥

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Unknown Unknowns‏ @ardematic Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        No coincidence. Correlation always approaches 1 in a decline.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. voltpathDOTca‏ @voltpathDOTca Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        i think it's funny how people scrambled for it. it's like the world asked them: wealth and no dignity, or dignity and an honest salary.- that's what you really putting a price on when you give status and worth to a "nothing". the value will go up until the dignity is out of stock

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jonathan Kreamer‏ @jonathankreamer Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        To be clear: most likely is coincidence/psychological. But fundamental reasons (interest rate expectations, risk appetite) could also play role

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jonathan Kreamer‏ @jonathankreamer Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Mkts probably dropping due to fears Fed will raise rates. Higher rates will be bad for BTC too. Besides, bubbles are sensitive to major events that people can psychologically coordinate on (sunspots). Plus higher risk in stocks should make investors want to shed risk in portfolio

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. altoidnerd‏ @AltoidNerd Feb 6
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        In the past crypto and traditional markets have been largely decoupled. A lot is happening right now in the crypto space, it could easily be a coincidence. Notable that the crypto correction began a month prior.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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