Looking forward to speaking with @ESYudkowsky today. Any questions for him?
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Replying to @SamHarrisOrg @ESYudkowsky
Yes: What, if anything, can be reliably inferred from an individual's lack of alarm and urgency over the AGI steering problem?
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Replying to @EricRWeinstein @SamHarrisOrg
Very little, really. There's just too many different reasons that people come up with for stepping off the line of reasoning at some point. And of course a supermajority of people haven't allocated time to explicitly consider the issue in the first place.
2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes -
Replying to @ESYudkowsky @SamHarrisOrg
Fair. Thanks. Rephrased with additional structure: “Assuming high interest, relevant technical ability and high familiarity with the problem, what are the three most frequent classes of reasons....” And feel free to add enough structure to sharpen the answer most meaningfully.
1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes -
Replying to @EricRWeinstein @SamHarrisOrg
1: The reasoning I discuss and try to refute in https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/ …, involving a considered opinion "I don't see how to get to AGI from the tools I know" and a less-considered sequitur from there to "So it's not time to start thinking about AI alignment."
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2: They don't expect AI alignment to be difficult. They don't think that building aligned AGI, instead of just building any AGI, takes as much additional effort as building a secure OS compared to just building an OS. Not enough written on this, but seehttps://arbital.com/p/aligning_adds_time/ …
1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
3: They disbelieve the rapid-capability-gains thesis, and expect the AGI situation to develop in a much slower and more multipolar way than, say, Deepmind's conquest of Go (never mind Alpha Zero blowing past the entire human Go edifice in one day from scratch).
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