I'm pretty sure that a betting market would give >1/1000 odds to visiting aliens explaining some UFOs. And at those odds the world should be spending much more than $22M/yr investigating UFO sightings.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html …
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could someone explain that reasoning? also how quantify the perceived sunk losses of science that turns up negative findings, especially in light of the serious problems with publication bias? do prediction markets potentially improve research funding decisions?
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Yes prediction markets could be used to improve research funding decisions.
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what kind of bets would be made? i.e. how to tackle the question of what research is valuable with respect to the beliefs/values lens? at least in my experience it's seems like there's a lot of conflation of the two in academia
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Distinguish between values and beliefs. Read Robin's work on futarchy; http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html …
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I have, but I'm not sure what kind of betting would aggregate good information to steer science... if there's a market for whether or not an experiment will give a negative result, is it scientific to use that market to aggregate information for funding policy?
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For any given proposed project, markets could tell you the chances of various outcomes, define in terms of specific results, or in terms of prestige of its products. Yes of course it is "scientific" to use best available info.
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careful: once the numbers coming out of pred. markets become relevant for something else, their quality could decrease because of conflicts of interest, fraud and so on. Similarly to the rating debacle of subprimes.
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Prediction markets have been shown to be much more robust to manipulation than are other consensus mechanisms.
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