Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

Tweets

Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

Tweets

  • © 2018 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017

      I'm pretty sure that a betting market would give >1/1000 odds to visiting aliens explaining some UFOs. And at those odds the world should be spending much more than $22M/yr investigating UFO sightings.https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html …

      9 replies 13 retweets 47 likes
      Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 17 Dec 2017
      Replying to @robinhanson

      How do the skeptics get paid? Because I want a piece of that action. You don't cross interstellar distances, hide, and then fly giant non-nanotechnological aircraft with their exterior lights lit where only sporadic witnesses can see you.

      3:45 PM - 17 Dec 2017
      • 2 Retweets
      • 23 Likes
      • mere_mortise Ray Hsu a_malevolent_ai elizabeth stark nothingmuch David's Disembodied Head 🍍Tommaso Sciortino🥑 Physical Attraction Podcast Matt Sperling
      4 replies 2 retweets 23 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          One obvious approach is to wait 1000 years before setting the bets. I expect that at the actual market odds, I'd bet against it too. Even so, it seems a good general policy for policy to follow the market odds.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson

          Can't argue with that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. nothingmuch‏ @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

          could someone explain that reasoning? also how quantify the perceived sunk losses of science that turns up negative findings, especially in light of the serious problems with publication bias? do prediction markets potentially improve research funding decisions?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 @ESYudkowsky

          Yes prediction markets could be used to improve research funding decisions.

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        6. nothingmuch‏ @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson @ESYudkowsky

          what kind of bets would be made? i.e. how to tackle the question of what research is valuable with respect to the beliefs/values lens? at least in my experience it's seems like there's a lot of conflation of the two in academia

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 @robinhanson

          Distinguish between values and beliefs. Read Robin's work on futarchy; http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html …

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. nothingmuch‏ @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @davidmanheim @robinhanson

          I have, but I'm not sure what kind of betting would aggregate good information to steer science... if there's a market for whether or not an experiment will give a negative result, is it scientific to use that market to aggregate information for funding policy?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @mHaGqnOACyFm0h5 @davidmanheim

          For any given proposed project, markets could tell you the chances of various outcomes, define in terms of specific results, or in terms of prestige of its products. Yes of course it is "scientific" to use best available info.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 6 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Physical Attraction Podcast‏ @physicspod 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

          The idea that they're here is less preposterous than the idea that they're here *and random people sometimes see them but otherwise there is no evidence*

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @physicspod @ESYudkowsky

          Okay, but events with odds over 1/1000 are often called "preposterous".

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Physical Attraction Podcast‏ @physicspod 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson @ESYudkowsky

          Equally, betting markets don't (in my experience) make accurate assessments of probability for these low-frequency events at the tails of the probability distribution. "Odds" are usually far, far likelier than the event. Seldom do you see anything worse than 1000/1

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @physicspod @ESYudkowsky

          That actually depends on the taxes/fees and market trading mechanism. With low fees & good mechanism, you can get odds much lower than 1/1000.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson @physicspod @ESYudkowsky

          @ctwardy Do you know what was the lowest probability for any SciCast event (no doubt a conjunction)? That is, a prob the system could and did represent?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Ben Golden‏ @BenGoldN 22 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson @physicspod and

          It's not hard to program SciCast or any other PM to allow arbitrarily many decimals. But it's very hard to establish a strong track record of accuracy with probabilities so small.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        8. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 22 Dec 2017
          Replying to @BenGoldN @physicspod and

          Saying that prediction markets have been proven to give bad values for low prob events is very different from saying that, by the nature of such probs, it is very hard to prove that prediction markets give good probs.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. Ben Golden‏ @BenGoldN 22 Dec 2017
          Replying to @robinhanson @physicspod and

          I don't actually know the track record that well...my point is just that you'd need enormous sample size to establish reliability at very low probabilities

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        10. 2 more replies
        1. David Zugman‏ @DJZ3 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

          It’s like you haven’t even seen Star Trek

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo
        1. Bob Nilsson‏ @RHNilsson 17 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

          Well said: “You don't cross interstellar distances, hide, and then fly giant non-nanotechnological aircraft with their exterior lights lit where only sporadic witnesses can see you.”

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2018 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Cookies
        • Ads info