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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
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@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 16 Dec 2017

    Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted Dr. Holly Witteman

    Whenever you see a story like this, you may be nearly certain that regulatory supply restrictions were at work. It's not just that Soviet Russia has long lines, but that *only* government overreach produces lines like this.https://twitter.com/hwitteman/status/941811086768123905 …

    Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

    Dr. Holly Witteman @hwitteman
    Recently, my husband got an email that they finally have a spot open at a Toronto daycare where we got put on a wait list while I was pregnant. Child is now 11yo.
    Show this thread
    5:02 PM - 16 Dec 2017
    • 15 Retweets
    • 50 Likes
    • Alcher Black Anton Karamanov Matt Mc Noël Lepère Charlie Dake Afforess Dr Joe Hamish Barney T Z
    11 replies 15 retweets 50 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Handy‏ @Michaeljhandy 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I suspect it's more a natural skills shortage. I've seen it in every western dense urban area I know of. Supply is low because Child Care is highly skilled, labour intensive, low pay, mostly only open to women, and with substantial stress and liability associated with it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @Michaeljhandy

        If there is a 10-year line because employee pay is low, increase prices and pay your workers more...?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. mariellevolz‏ @mariellevolz 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @Michaeljhandy

        Costs are fundamentally limited by the salaries of the child's parents. At a certain threshold of cost, parents will leave work and will take care of the children themselves.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Michael Handy‏ @Michaeljhandy 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @mariellevolz @ESYudkowsky

        Additionally, the work, at least where I live (Australia) is VERY low status (basically, you are a kid janitor.), and requires a fairly high level diploma. It's a vocational career. To change this you'd probably need to make it like oil rig pay, near 6 figures.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @Michaeljhandy @mariellevolz

        Look, you do not normally get to simultaneously talk about 11 - year wait times *and* prices not being able to go high enough to pay for supply. Normally you raise prices some, supply increases some, demand drops some, the long lines go away.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      7. Michael Handy‏ @Michaeljhandy 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @mariellevolz

        It's not price, it's status. It's a skilled job occupying a social and pay niche usually dominated with unskilled workers. So you can either raise job status so people want to do it, raise prices so far nannies wages rise, raising demand further, or let unskilled people do it.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jon  🏹 👱🏻 Bauman‏ @AnoYaro 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        How about the waiting list for Packers season tickets or rafting the Grand Canyon?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @AnoYaro

        Who owns the Grand Canyon? Who owns the stadium?

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Jon  🏹 👱🏻 Bauman‏ @AnoYaro 17 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Touché But how would the supply of season tickets be made greater without playing many more games?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. Bill Roberts‏ @WRoberts_1943 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I see your thesis, but no substantial argument, just a bald statement of a conclusion with no intervening discussion or supporting facts.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      1. Dr. Holly Witteman‏ @hwitteman 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        This one was quite the outlier. We got in at another centre when he was 2. And for whatever two data points are worth, we now live in a place with far, far more regulation of daycares. After moving here, we got a daycare spot for our youngest right down the street within days.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      1. Max‏ @maxua 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @fycth

        Also, this:http://www.popularsocialscience.com/2012/12/03/ronald-reagan-tells-communist-jokes/ …

        0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
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      1. Aleksei Schekotikhin‏ @alexis_sch 18 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        To be fair - Soviet Russia didn't have any lines to daycare, there was an abundance of pre-school/school activities as well, all completely free. This cannot be said about other areas, especially consumer goods.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Rees Price‏ @reesaroo 18 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @quirkyllama

        Soup kitchens and homeless shelters also have long lines. Trying to purchase a popular xmas toy that is nearly sold out—enormous lines.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. River Fishing Heraclitus‏ @wamyc 17 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Hmm. No, I think that the problem isn't regulation; it's that our economy is fundamentally not set up to value child rearing. There's no money in it because it is (viewed as) a time sink that isn't properly monetized.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. River Fishing Heraclitus‏ @wamyc 17 Dec 2017
        Replying to @wamyc @ESYudkowsky

        Hahaha though what is the answer? Young adults paying back their guardians a large portion of their income.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Mohsen Ghajar‏ @mohsen_ghajar 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Fighting with regulation ~ fighting with insurance. No government --> survival of the fittest [luckiest]. Question is: does my governance sys guarantee a minimum level of happiness 4 all and reduce effects of pure luck? only criticize and improve regulation. Can't eliminate it

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Mohsen Ghajar‏ @mohsen_ghajar 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @mohsen_ghajar @ESYudkowsky

        And yes the "minimum happiness" is subjective; because "rights" are subjective; designs to reduce cruelty of nature.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Duke Van Horn‏ @DukeVH 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Yup. Bureaucracies produce results like these, and any company so bureaucratic itself would have gone under by now.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. HORRIBLE FLY-MAN (Nubes Rojas)‏ @cosmosPixelado 16 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        and yet, it seems not enough (or good enough) regulation happened, given that in 2013 ontario had to up the regulations following the death of an infant in a daycare in a car...and the regulated daycares seem to kill more kids than the unreg ones prolly just wrong regulations

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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