How much censorship-resistant commerce for the common people have we enabled?
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How many dapps have we created that have substantial usage? Low added value *per user* for using a blockchain is fine, but then you have to make up for it in volume.
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How much value is stored in smart contracts that actually do anything interesting?
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How many Venezuelans have actually been protected by us from hyperinflation?
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How much actual usage of micropayment channels is there actually in reality?
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The answer to all of these questions is definitely not zero, and in some cases it's quite significant. But not enough to say it's $0.5T levels of significant. Not enough.
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Replying to @VitalikButerin
Just to be clear, we all understand that the (weak) efficient markets hypothesis prohibits a world where cryptocurrency prices only rise after their value has actually been earned, ja? That would be a world of predictable price rises once the earning started.
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Replying to @ESYudkowsky
I should rephrase. In the last 3 years, the crypto market cap has increased by 200x, but I definitely don't feel like crypto's *potential* has increased by 200x. In some key sectors (eg. payments) it has even regressed.
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Replying to @VitalikButerin
If we were going to die on the hill of EMH--which I don't think I would in just my first-order opinion, but I think Scott Sumner would and he may know better than I do--then the reply would be that the market's confidence in that potential was what increased 200x.
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Replying to @ESYudkowsky
If you wish, feel free to interpret my remarks as "the public clearly has very very high expectations of us, and this makes me feel worried and uneasy inside. We need to try harder to make this actually work"
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"There was something almost nightmarish about how everyone seemed to now expect Harry to pull miracles out of his hat, any time one was needed. It meant that if you couldn't do the impossible, you were disappointing your friends and failing to live up to your potential..."
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