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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
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@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    1. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      So total cryptocoin market cap just hit $0.5T today. But have we *earned* it?

      485 replies 2,995 retweets 7,898 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many unbanked people have we banked?

      91 replies 411 retweets 2,104 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much censorship-resistant commerce for the common people have we enabled?

      35 replies 217 retweets 1,458 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many dapps have we created that have substantial usage? Low added value *per user* for using a blockchain is fine, but then you have to make up for it in volume.

      36 replies 161 retweets 1,085 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much value is stored in smart contracts that actually do anything interesting?

      38 replies 182 retweets 1,239 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many Venezuelans have actually been protected by us from hyperinflation?

      82 replies 325 retweets 1,683 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much actual usage of micropayment channels is there actually in reality?

      52 replies 168 retweets 1,231 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      The answer to all of these questions is definitely not zero, and in some cases it's quite significant. But not enough to say it's $0.5T levels of significant. Not enough.

      173 replies 425 retweets 2,468 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 12 Dec 2017
      Replying to @VitalikButerin

      Just to be clear, we all understand that the (weak) efficient markets hypothesis prohibits a world where cryptocurrency prices only rise after their value has actually been earned, ja? That would be a world of predictable price rises once the earning started.

      8 replies 5 retweets 96 likes
    10. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017
      Replying to @ESYudkowsky

      I should rephrase. In the last 3 years, the crypto market cap has increased by 200x, but I definitely don't feel like crypto's *potential* has increased by 200x. In some key sectors (eg. payments) it has even regressed.

      4 replies 25 retweets 82 likes
      Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 13 Dec 2017
      Replying to @VitalikButerin

      If we were going to die on the hill of EMH--which I don't think I would in just my first-order opinion, but I think Scott Sumner would and he may know better than I do--then the reply would be that the market's confidence in that potential was what increased 200x.

      12:12 AM - 13 Dec 2017
      • 2 Retweets
      • 9 Likes
      • Jesin00 Rogs Jason Wright Ansgar Dietrichs Elliot Olds 👹 Ameen Soleimani CallMeGwei Jakkdl Michael Burge
      3 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          If you wish, feel free to interpret my remarks as "the public clearly has very very high expectations of us, and this makes me feel worried and uneasy inside. We need to try harder to make this actually work"

          4 replies 8 retweets 56 likes
        3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @VitalikButerin

          "There was something almost nightmarish about how everyone seemed to now expect Harry to pull miracles out of his hat, any time one was needed. It meant that if you couldn't do the impossible, you were disappointing your friends and failing to live up to your potential..."

          0 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Max Schumacher‏ @mxschumacher 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          I find it tough to apply EMH here. German telco's market cap was $500bn at peak dot-com bubble. Less confidence, more mindless speculation and fear of missing out. Marginal technical knowledge of new investors goes down by the day. Tough to be ignorant & confident.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. 1 more reply
        1. New conversation
        2.  👹 Ameen Soleimani‏ @ameensol 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          So just to give us some reasonable bounds here - what would *full* market confidence look like? Is it basically the whole world agreeing that Ethereum /Crypto are going to be foundational to the global economy? What would the price be at that point? How far away from that are we?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3.  👹 Ameen Soleimani‏ @ameensol 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ameensol @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          10x? 100x? 1000x? Are there any good reasons why the prices might be justifiable at these levels?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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