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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
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@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    1. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      So total cryptocoin market cap just hit $0.5T today. But have we *earned* it?

      485 replies 2,995 retweets 7,898 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many unbanked people have we banked?

      91 replies 411 retweets 2,104 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much censorship-resistant commerce for the common people have we enabled?

      35 replies 217 retweets 1,458 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many dapps have we created that have substantial usage? Low added value *per user* for using a blockchain is fine, but then you have to make up for it in volume.

      36 replies 161 retweets 1,085 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much value is stored in smart contracts that actually do anything interesting?

      38 replies 182 retweets 1,239 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How many Venezuelans have actually been protected by us from hyperinflation?

      82 replies 325 retweets 1,683 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      How much actual usage of micropayment channels is there actually in reality?

      52 replies 168 retweets 1,231 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017

      The answer to all of these questions is definitely not zero, and in some cases it's quite significant. But not enough to say it's $0.5T levels of significant. Not enough.

      173 replies 425 retweets 2,468 likes
      Show this thread
      Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 12 Dec 2017
      Replying to @VitalikButerin

      Just to be clear, we all understand that the (weak) efficient markets hypothesis prohibits a world where cryptocurrency prices only rise after their value has actually been earned, ja? That would be a world of predictable price rises once the earning started.

      5:02 PM - 12 Dec 2017
      • 5 Retweets
      • 96 Likes
      • LR Heidenberg Joseph Kim 🎃E. Harding🎃 Charles Douthat 🚧⛓ Peter Parker⚡ MG #BLOCKCHAIN Kofi Amanfo II Brett Digitronlite
      8 replies 5 retweets 96 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Yes, agree. I guess I am reacting to the fact that not only is there not $0.5T of actual (monetizable) impact, but I currently don't even see *the necessary precursors* for it. Alternatively, P/E ratios in the crypto space are waaaay higher than anywhere else.

          12 replies 21 retweets 127 likes
        3. Andrew "Team No One" Glidden‏ @asglidden 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @VitalikButerin @ESYudkowsky

          Not so: people can bid up the price in anticipation of better fundamentals tomorrow. (Markets are definitely being irrational though.) Also: P/E makes zero sense when applied to digital assets. There’s no earnings! Same with “market cap”, which is really just monetary base.

          3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
        4. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @asglidden @ESYudkowsky

          I'd say transaction fees are one decent way to measure E.

          7 replies 10 retweets 66 likes
        5. Christopher Grippo‏ @christophergrip 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @VitalikButerin @asglidden @ESYudkowsky

          How? Earnings and transaction fees are barely comparable in my opinion.

          3 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
        6. Andrew "Team No One" Glidden‏ @asglidden 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @christophergrip @VitalikButerin @ESYudkowsky

          The earnings don’t accrue to assetholders, they accrue to miners. P/E is supposed to measure the asset’s RoI, not costs. Transaction fees are not wealth created but wealth (electricity) destroyed. It may be “earnings” to someone, but ideally that gets driven to zero.

          3 replies 1 retweet 23 likes
        7. oliver beige‏ @oliverbeige 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @asglidden @christophergrip and

          Oh, if you look at crypto as a production function, which anyone who looks at market cap inherently does, mining is the production, PoW-backed tx verification is the product, and miners are the residual claimants. Makes sense.

          2 replies 2 retweets 10 likes
        8. Christopher Grippo‏ @christophergrip 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @oliverbeige @ecoinomia and

          So in that case shouldn't block reward and not tx fee be the E in P/E i.e. money going to shareholders

          3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        9. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @christophergrip @ecoinomia and

          Block reward is dilution to pay expenses.

          3 replies 6 retweets 19 likes
        10. 16 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          I should rephrase. In the last 3 years, the crypto market cap has increased by 200x, but I definitely don't feel like crypto's *potential* has increased by 200x. In some key sectors (eg. payments) it has even regressed.

          4 replies 25 retweets 82 likes
        3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @VitalikButerin

          If we were going to die on the hill of EMH--which I don't think I would in just my first-order opinion, but I think Scott Sumner would and he may know better than I do--then the reply would be that the market's confidence in that potential was what increased 200x.

          3 replies 2 retweets 9 likes
        4. Vitalik Non-giver of Ether‏Verified account @VitalikButerin 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          If you wish, feel free to interpret my remarks as "the public clearly has very very high expectations of us, and this makes me feel worried and uneasy inside. We need to try harder to make this actually work"

          4 replies 8 retweets 56 likes
        5. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @VitalikButerin

          "There was something almost nightmarish about how everyone seemed to now expect Harry to pull miracles out of his hat, any time one was needed. It meant that if you couldn't do the impossible, you were disappointing your friends and failing to live up to your potential..."

          0 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. Amjad Masad‏ @amasad 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          Your new book on this 👌

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 12 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          The other side of this is that weak EMH also prohibits a world where there is not a significant probability that the prices will later be justified - and not as a bubble. But bubbles do happen, and prices are forever and always simply reflecting the (sometimes irrational) demand.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Klemitz‏ @DKlemitz 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          It's a bubble economy - don't you think ?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Midnight Magic‏ @midmagic 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          “0.5T” is an imaginary number divorced from reality—this thread is navel-gazing bs—the product itself uses a multiplicand which is an unknown quantity, ignores the size of the economy, market depths, and is thus incomparable with almost every other real-world measure.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. OverActive Media‏ @OverActiveMedia 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          However, expansionary monetary policy globally, related to fiat currency manipulation and lower than sustainable interest rates can create inflationary bubbles in various asset classes, and crypto is not immune. Just remember that bubbles begin with bad central bank policies.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. David Klemitz‏ @DKlemitz 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @OverActiveMedia @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          Then there is no price discovery unlike crypto and BTC prior to futures markets 'civilization'?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. OverActive Media‏ @OverActiveMedia 13 Dec 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky @VitalikButerin

          Exactly. Rational expectations are priced in today on a risk adjusted basis.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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