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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 3 Dec 2017

    One of the things I never did understand about politics was why Obama continued the Bush administration's attempts to ratchet up fear in airports and elsewhere. To me this seems like something that obviously feeds Republicanism. How did it help Obama?

    12:26 PM - 3 Dec 2017
    • 2 Retweets
    • 30 Likes
    • Sopнια ✿¸.•🍁🐻🎈 Daniel Houck John Dickson Benjohn Barnes Aishwarya Singh Noah Caldwell Azuki Dave Jones purpleposeidon
    19 replies 2 retweets 30 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Peter Heft‏ @hefty_heft 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        You're implying that there's a hard and fast dichotomy between Obama-style "liberalism" and Bush-style "republicanism." The two are incredibly similar and appealing to fears not only is a way to get votes, but is a perfect justification for the expansion of state power.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @hefty_heft

        How does the fear-based expansion of state power help Democrats? Or Obama? It just promoted a Republican majority and then President. Why would they trade off an opportunity to do some nice evil against a political *loss* for themselves?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Peter Heft‏ @hefty_heft 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        1/2 I think that you're still assuming that pre-Trump Republicans and Democrats were radically different. Both were two sides of the same neoliberal coin with the roughly similar donors. In other words, it doesn't matter who is in control so long as the donors are happy.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Peter Heft‏ @hefty_heft 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @hefty_heft @ESYudkowsky

        2/2 To answer more directly, however: expansion of state power by any means helps the Democrats by making it seem as if the government is always there to help and protect. The Republican take over was an expected result that absent Trump would still feed the same interests.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. Max Cantor‏ @maxcan 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I’ve often wondered the same. Only theory I have was that upside is small but the downside of being blamed for any future attack, even if not precipitated at all by rationalized airport security, would be blamed on him@

        0 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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      1. Jeff Lonsdale‏ @JeffLonsdale 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Insurance

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1.  🎃E. Harding 🎃‏ @Enopoletus 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        The National Security state wanted it, and Obama was not their enemy.

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Paul Crowley‏ @ciphergoth 4 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        He couldn't afford to be seen to be "soft on terror"

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Graham‏ @ScienceOMFG 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        It doesn't, but the risk is that if you ratchet down the fear and then an attack happens, you'll be blamed for not doing enough.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Daniel Lawhon‏ @DTLawhon 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        There was zero external political cost to maintaining status quo, and massive potential downside to changing status quo. Plus there is probably high internal/bureaucratic political cost (NatSec establishment would push back; is it worth the internal fight, leaks, etc?)

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Daniel Lawhon‏ @DTLawhon 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @DTLawhon @ESYudkowsky

        People underestimate the enormous power wielded by the bureaucracy. POTUS asks the TSA for options on reducing security hassle; they give options that est. 20% higher chance of successful attack. If POTUS signs off, his name is literally on that.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Daniel Lawhon‏ @DTLawhon 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @DTLawhon @ESYudkowsky

        The TSA is going to poison any policy they don't like with analysis baking in negative consequences of doing so. DoD did this with the Afghanistan surge. Gave Obama 3 choices: Let it fall to the Taliban, send 30K more troops, or send 60K more troops. What do you pick?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Daniel Lawhon‏ @DTLawhon 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @DTLawhon @ESYudkowsky

        The middle option is obviously the one they want. POTUS can keep ordering new plans, but DoD will just keep baking in negative outcomes to whatever option they don't like. Effectively, they'll back him up politically if their option goes sideways, but if his option does...?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. Heikki Sairanen‏ @HeikkiSairanen 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Risk of something happening of course? If there was an attack on airplanes, they would need to show that they had done everything they could.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Eduardo Valle‏ @DrEAVJr 4 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I attribute a modest probability that the decision was rational, marginalizing over all (unknown to me) knowledge sources available to him. That we hadn't since have any major incidents increases my belief on that a bit — but just a bit, as incidents are rare to begin with.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. beanieman‏ @cyanbeanie 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Think of the TSA as another government backed program to create jobs.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Private Property‏ @_iterator 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        The deep state is a real thing

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Stephan Ahonen‏ @ten_octaves 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Step 1) Ramp up airport security Step 2) Introduce $100 TSA Precheck program to allow us to get through security quicker Step 3) Profit

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Tom Keller‏ @timrinaldo 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Because they are both part pf the deep state elite

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Steven Ehrbar‏ @ehrbar 3 Dec 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Here's the donations by the union that represents TSA employees: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/totals.php?id=D000000304&cycle=2014 … .

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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