I liked it. It's helpful as an analogy for people who already are familiar with security mindset - so I'd suspect it's more convincing to, say, AI-programmers than it is to general audiences.
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It seems like you're grasping for the distinction between exhausting the possibility space and narrowing the possibility space.
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You say arguing against this is arguing against Murphy. An existing analogy says that guarding against random failure, like Amber talks about at first, is guarding against Murphy; most of this essay is about guarding against Machiavelli.
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