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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
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@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 20 Nov 2017

    Proposal: Every experimental paper submitted has a checkbox reading: "Are you confident this result will replicate?" If you check "Yes" and it doesn't replicate, it's a big deal. If you check "No", we all understand the finding is tentative.

    7:51 PM - 20 Nov 2017
    • 26 Retweets
    • 146 Likes
    • Ash vs the Evil Dead MTL Branden Bardic Dragon Christian Brink Griffin Cock Foster Josh Morrison Jeff Lonsdale Bogdan Brănescu
    8 replies 26 retweets 146 likes
      1. Nathan Bashaw‏Verified account @nbashaw 20 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Or “how confident” and give number between 0-1

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Steve Downey‏ @sdowney 20 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Did you test more than 15 hypotheses for p .05 significance?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. David Hirshleifer‏ @4misceldah 20 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Indicate confidence by setting the betting odds the author will accept.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Richard Korzekwa‏ @WeakInteraction 20 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Main complication that I see is that many papers have more than one result, which may not all be high confidence.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. David Reinstein‏ @GivingTools 23 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        It's a good start, but what do we do if everyone checks 'yes' and some papers don't replicate?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. NPC Jen‏ @Jen_Dodgson 21 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Also, if you turn out to be wrong, you have to go out into the carpark stark naked and wash the car of the person who proved it. #Incentives

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Supreme Soul‏ @industrymedia 21 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Good setup for a joke, but terrible punchline 3/10

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Lumifer‏ @lumiferrous 21 Nov 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Instead of a checkbox you need to have a line segment ]0, 1[ on which you put a mark

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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