Big Q: in 1000yrs, why no org ever gained sufficient reputation to entrust w/ "I accuse X of Y, but only make public if N others also accusehttps://twitter.com/bradtem/status/920021299157598208 …
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Okay, but why have not orgs evolved reputation for being trusted by instinct, even if they aren't actually trustworthy?
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Many have! Political parties and politicians try it! But their long-term badness is not invisible.
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E.g., monkeys only like strong monkeys with suits and prestige who talk a lot about God, but these often betray so don't accumulate trust
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Though I think that anticorrelation is a Goodhart's Law issue so couldn't solve by trusting apparent nerds - others would fake that instead
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Yes! It's a complex system where we want an intuitive proxy for trust. I've argued that's exactly when Goodhart's law applies.pic.twitter.com/ii1OxSFmkv
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1/ Skeptical of this. Is there evidence of this anticorrelation? Most of what I've seen suggests humans are good statisticians when it comes
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2/ to instinct representing trustworthiness (on avg of course, some stunning counterexamples). My sense is the real answer is more complex.
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3/ E.g. I trust Amazon to deliver on the specified date and that trust is warranted almost every time. But Amazon doesn't really deal in
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4/ social analytics. And groups that do are often either underfunded because the market is short-sighted, or have to exaggerate their claims
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5/ and efficacy, like SPLC, in order to get funding and seem relevant in today's social sphere. Either way, seems like the root cause is
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6/ closer to that of "market doesn't value that service" together with "those who clamor loudest for justice don't value hard stats".
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7/7 No cash flow if you don't produce a marketable good / service, and you don't appeal to your base's social movement enough to get grants.
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