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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 1 Oct 2017

    "Never explain a changing parameter by a constant factor," quoth @robinhanson. Eg: "Why is inequality rising?" "Greed." "Greed isn't new!"

    12:25 PM - 1 Oct 2017
    • 87 Retweets
    • 268 Likes
    • Russ Grote Robin Hanson Ежи Пшезьдзецкий Franciszek Żak Sabelo N George Wanfried S̳ị̴͙̣̞g̜͞i̴̥̯l͕ler Niftier Gamarad
    17 replies 87 retweets 268 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Member Of Species‏ @MemberOfSpecies 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        Constant causes (e.g. emissions) can have accumulating effects (e.g. concentrations). Seems natural to read greed/inequality claim this way.

        2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @MemberOfSpecies @ESYudkowsky

        You still have to explain why the parameter started out low in the recent past.

        2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
      4. Member Of Species‏ @MemberOfSpecies 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @robinhanson @ESYudkowsky

        Yes, although how recent depends on the specific example.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Kinrany‏ @kinrany 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        "Why is the ball falling?" "Gravity." "Gravity isn't new!"

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @kinrany @ESYudkowsky

        The ball can't have been falling forever; something threw it upward at some point, and that's a key part of explanation.

        0 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jonathan Masur‏ @jonathanmasur 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        Nonsense. "Why is speed increasing?" "Acceleration." "Acceleration isn't new."

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @jonathanmasur @ESYudkowsky

        Unless it is plausible that the acceleration has been constant forever, you'll need a theory of why it changed.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Jonathan Masur‏ @jonathanmasur 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @robinhanson @ESYudkowsky

        Seems entirely plausible that greed has been constant forever.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @jonathanmasur @ESYudkowsky

        Yes, so unless it is plausible that inequality has been increasing at the same rate forever, we need more to explain rising inequality today

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. ablaut reduplication‏ @restrictedquant 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        More accurate: "Never explain a changing parameter SOLELY by a constant factor"?

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Joel Jensen‏ @joelgjensen 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        The only new (at the time) things that ever changed inequality were the Black Death and the two world wars:http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/businessreview/2017/04/27/the-long-run-tendency-for-wealth-to-concentrate-in-a-few-hands/ …

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Dan Gregory‏ @CommonCapitaI 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @stianwestlake @robinhanson

        What about the miracle of compound interest?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Lynoure Braakman‏ @Lynoure 1 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @xuenay @robinhanson

        That would also say bank account balance is not explainable with a fixed interest rate?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Kaj Sotala‏ @xuenay 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @Lynoure @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        Seems unlikely that the bank account balance has been increasing forever.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Lynoure Braakman‏ @Lynoure 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @xuenay @ESYudkowsky @robinhanson

        Sure, everything that is also had a starting point. That's not new either.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. Kaj Sotala‏ @xuenay 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @Lynoure

        Not sure I follow you.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Lynoure Braakman‏ @Lynoure 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @xuenay

        If you did, we could take this to DM. I am now guessing you used "forever" for "monotonic over time" and I took it for "since forever".

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Kaj Sotala‏ @xuenay 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @Lynoure

        I think I meant "since forever" at first, but monotonic is actually a better interpretation, so I'll claim to have meant that all along.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Cheyne‏ @CheyneJMiller 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @timbucki @robinhanson

        While falling, my speed would be increasing due to a constant force by gravity. My newly impending doom caused by old gravity. #science

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Joseph Aren’tThingsScaryEnough Hirsh‏ @corepresentable 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @CheyneJMiller @ESYudkowsky and

        In your example, gravity is explanatory, but there's still some "new" explaining to do. How did you get up so high? How did you fall?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Cheyne‏ @CheyneJMiller 2 Oct 2017
        Replying to @corepresentable @ESYudkowsky and

        It doesn't matter because none of those affect the change of the parameter. That quote is not helpful however nice it makes us feel

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation

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