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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 20 Sep 2017

    AI hype busters: What would you bet at 9-1 cannot *possibly* be done in 1, 2, or 5 years? (Concrete verifiable tasks only, obviously.)

    11:03 AM - 20 Sep 2017
    • 10 Retweets
    • 14 Likes
    • Princess Carrots Milica Petrovic David Vandegrift Dr. Erika Varis Rob Bensinger Rogs Lee Sharkey paranoid monoid Andrew M
    14 replies 10 retweets 14 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Eleanor Berger‏ @intellectronica 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Cross-domain transfer learning. No task where training in one domain will result in predictive ability in another domain in the next 5 years

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @intellectronica

        How is this not already false? And if I can ask that, it's not concrete enough to be bettable.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Eleanor Berger‏ @intellectronica 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        No system can predict the effects of gravity on objects in a video after being trained on textual explanations of gravity. Not now not in 5y

        1 reply 3 retweets 7 likes
      5. Robin Green 🌹 🔰‏ @greenrd 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @intellectronica @ESYudkowsky

        Well but vision is hard

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Eleanor Berger‏ @intellectronica 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @greenrd @ESYudkowsky

        Right, and language is hard too

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. This Charming Typhon‏ @TyphonBaalAmmon 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Do you count Turing tests as a concrete verifiable tasks ?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @TyphonBaalAmmon

        Yes, but literal "the world will not end" doesn't interest me. If you have knowledge on AI limits you should be able to state lower limits.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. This Charming Typhon‏ @TyphonBaalAmmon 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Let's say no satisfactory machine translation.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Grzegorz Chrupała‏ @gchrupala 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Not in 5 years: translation of arbitrary text at same quality as a human professional.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @gchrupala @ESYudkowsky

        In 5 years? I'd take that bet for a random text, decided by a blind panel of translators, for at least 1 language. How much will you bet?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Grzegorz Chrupała‏ @gchrupala 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky

        What's random? And reasonably dissimilar languages. Spanish to Portuguese doesn't count. I'd bet a thousand euro.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      5. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @gchrupala @ESYudkowsky

        Random published nontechnical or fiction book excerpts or popular press articles. And you'll bet 1k euro against my 100 euro?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      6. Grzegorz Chrupała‏ @gchrupala 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky

        Yeah, would bet.

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      7. YuQUALS Pinter  ➡️10-22  👓 📃 📚 📝‏ @yuvalpi 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @gchrupala @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky

        Thus endeth the thread? C'mon

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      8. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Josh Triplett‏ @josh_triplett 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Cannot be done in 5 years: a bot that successfully answers randomly selected StackOverflow questions (not cherry-picked), w/ working code.

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. Josh Triplett‏ @josh_triplett 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @josh_triplett @ESYudkowsky

        Cherry-picked seems plausible, "only answer the easy questions". Answering random non-duplicate questions with 99+% success, not so much.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. David Manheim‏ @davidmanheim 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @josh_triplett @ESYudkowsky

        David Manheim Retweeted Eliezer Yudkowsky

        99% plus? You'd need better than human ability, across all categories? I'd bet $1000 at 9:1 against C++ with 90+% accuracy within 2 years.https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/910566159249899520 …

        David Manheim added,

        Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account @ESYudkowsky
        AI hype busters: What is the *least* impressive feat that you would bet big money at 9-1 odds *cannot possibly* be done in 2 years?
        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Josh Triplett‏ @josh_triplett 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky

        Don't know the landscape, figured I'd start conservatively. That sounds plausible. Could also compare to top users, if you can avoid gaming.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Josh Triplett‏ @josh_triplett 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @josh_triplett @davidmanheim @ESYudkowsky

        Primarily, I wanted to avoid suggesting that a "smart FAQ bot" would suffice.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. My Info‏ @realmforge 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Build a house of known design in arbitrary terrain. Write a book containing at least 10 chapters that sells 500,000 copies at 10.00$

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Nick Cammarata‏ @nicklovescode 20 Sep 2017
        Replying to @realmforge @ESYudkowsky

        A misinterpretation got me thinking. 3d depth sensing of landscape -> house structure (CAD) that optimizes for it would be pretty cool

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. End of conversation

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