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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    1. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Aug 2017

      Powerball and Mega Millions sell exactly the same fantasy AFAICT. How can one charge $2 when the other only costs $1?

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 9 Aug 2017

      The answer can't be expected payouts being higher for one Powerball ticket, because people don't buy lottery tickets because of math.

      4:33 PM - 9 Aug 2017
      • 1 Retweet
      • 10 Likes
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      15 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Tamzin Blake ⚧‏ @tamzinblake 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Anchoring. Some people are buying the premium fantasy while others are buying the value fantasy.

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
        3. Tamzin Blake ⚧‏ @tamzinblake 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @tamzinblake @ESYudkowsky

          Apple should disrupt the market by selling a $100 lottery ticket.

          0 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Pavel Atanasov‏ @PavelDAtanasov 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          There is some math involved, just the wrong kind. Many people compare jackpots, but ignore probabilities and never get to expected winnings.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. Vaelin Van Gogh‏ @VaelinVanGogh 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          The minimum jackpot for powerball is 40 million, minimum for mega millions is 15 million. Many willing to pay more for the larger fantasy.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Eliyahu Switzer‏ @eliyahuswitzer 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Expected utility of 10M$ is more than 1$ times 10M

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. vinsomer  🍭, prorex de vacui‏ @lhommedauphin 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          are u being intentionally obtuse? lottery players are effectively innumerate, so ofc have reduced differentiation by price

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. New conversation
        2. Daemon Todd‏ @daemontodd 11 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          True that people rarely perform effective analyses, but badly wrong to assume lottery always irrational on this surface level. 1/

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Daemon Todd‏ @daemontodd 11 Aug 2017
          Replying to @daemontodd @ESYudkowsky

          Optimizing for $ it's obv net negative, but no reason to do that. Optimize for quality of life / social status / etc. becomes ... 2/

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Daemon Todd‏ @daemontodd 11 Aug 2017
          Replying to @daemontodd @ESYudkowsky

          ... strongly net positive. Nonlinear correlation of $$ to QoL etc. makes all the difference. 3/3

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation
        1. Chris Gillett‏ @chrisrgillett 10 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          The skills necessary to know to not play the lottery are different from the skills necessary to determine which game is preferable.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Alexander Davis‏ @ADeebus 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          It's comparative, just like all happiness.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Digital Security‏ @SpireSec 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          http://www.nytimes.com/1992/02/25/us/group-invests-5-million-to-hedge-bets-in-lottery.html …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Digital Security‏ @SpireSec 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Well at least once they did.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Dan Parker‏ @dm_parker0 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          actual answer: powerball used to be $1, they raised it to $2 and lowered the odds (added more possible numbers) to increase prize pools.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dan Parker‏ @dm_parker0 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @dm_parker0 @ESYudkowsky

          the idea being that it would reach large (>$300-400M) jackpots more frequently and attract casual players, who show up when jackpots get big

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Casey Dahlin  🌐‏ @AmericanTeethSM 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Could be expected payouts with a very poor method of calculation. I.e. one has a bigger number on it.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Jason Seba‏ @jason_seba 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          This may come as a shock but not everyone acts completely rationally all the time.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Joe Sweeney‏ @joe_sweeney 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          Saturation? We see the same number for both because that is how many people buy lottery tickets

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Max Schumacher‏ @mxschumacher 9 Aug 2017
          Replying to @ESYudkowsky

          There is temporary happiness in self deception. Imagining ourselves as heroes or being rich. That's what people are buying.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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