Elon Musk’s Fixation on Killer AI Distracts from Much More Immediate Problems with Smart Machines https://www.wired.com/story/elon-forget-killer-robots-focus-on-the-real-ai-problems/ … by @tsimonite
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The fallacy here is the one that underlies pascal's wager. The assertion of infinite disutility shouldn't undermine all rational arguments.
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The fallacy is in thinking that if disutility must be large therefore probability must be small!http://lesswrong.com/lw/z0/the_pascals_wager_fallacy_fallacy/ …
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Nobody is saying that. The arguments that the probability is large are not compelling.
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Powerful AGI = scientifically novel mission-critical software, subject to sorta-adverse optimization pressures, that must work on 1st try
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I mean, I understand why a concerned scientist doesn't want to try arguing the details of why they think the risk is false, to the media.
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It's still fascinating that "Never mind whether we're all going to die, what if corporations get richer?!" works as a tactic.
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Derailment is a good word for it. Even if a batch of cars destroys a city, it is not an existential threat to make this blunder.
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Yep. Humanity picks itself up and moves on. But AIfolk are correct that they auto-lose irrespective of facts if they try arguing the risk.
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Their tragic logical fallacy is in thinking this implies the risk is false. Regardless of media insanity, risk is still a factual question.
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Not all those pushing back on Musk think the risk false, it's more about priorities in this context. E.g. see how I quoted
@iyadrahwan
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