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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 3 Dec 2016

    As far as I know, nobody in any profession that's paid real money for correct answers, uses anything like the statistics in academic papers.

    12:39 AM - 3 Dec 2016
    • 14 Retweets
    • 67 Likes
    • Martin Dahlberg Spooky🐍Intuitionist Jesper Agdakx Philip E. Tetlock niko lai ⚓ benthor Harsh Shah Aleksi Liimatainen Easton Smith
    13 replies 14 retweets 67 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Srijit Sanyal‏ @_Srijit 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        what do they use

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @_Srijit

        As a very trivial example, regularized linear regression instead of linear regression?

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Gary Basin‏ @garybasin 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I think you're overstating your case. P-hacking is bad, p-values are fine if you're not optimizing for them

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @garybasin

        So who that gets paid real money for correct answers, uses p-values? Which hedge fund? What weather forecasting company?

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Peter Favaloro‏ @PeterFavaloro 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @garybasin

        Bridgewater Assoc, where I worked for years. Quite successful hedge fund. Sometimes used p-values w bonferroni etc.

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. stucchio‏ @stucchio 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        I'd love to hear what you mean by this.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. nickgreentweet‏ @nickgreentweet 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        which some will interpret as a case against such professions - others, against academic statistics (applied to real systems)

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Haggers Barlowe  🇺🇸 ︻╦̵̵̿╤──  ☠️ ☠️ ☠️‏ @haggerskme 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        2. In markets/finance, relationships are usually heteroscedastic which makes a lot of rigor too time consuming anyway

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. New conversation
      2. Mathew Halpern‏ @Sampleminded66 4 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        no they are even http://worse.You  have obviously not worked in business.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. 1 more reply
      1. Murphy‏ @MilitantHobo 5 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Really? statisticians in my lab do occasional contract work for finance firms and don't mention doing analysis differently.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. darth_vasya‏ @darth_vasya 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        which academic papers? Particle physics? Psychology?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Jordan B. Tweeterson‏ @FapsOfMeaning 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        yes, moar elaborates

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Haggers Barlowe  🇺🇸 ︻╦̵̵̿╤──  ☠️ ☠️ ☠️‏ @haggerskme 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        1. You don't need academic rigor to make useful models of real world phenomena.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. mark elliott‏ @memarkelliottme 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        In medicine 95% of "research" is BS statistically speaking but it's better than nothing and employs a lot of people.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Smoukov Lab‏ @AIM_Labs 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        is there an example you are thinking of?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Alex Andronikou‏ @lex_andronikou 3 Dec 2016
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Elaborate.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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