@ESYudkowsky I don't think switching up words will solve the basic decision-theory problem here.
-
-
-
@Noahpinion@ESYudkowsky Taboo'ing words doesn't fix the problem alone, but it allows you to really start discussing the underlying issue. -
@ScottLeibrand@ESYudkowsky The question is whether people can be induced to bet on preference-independent forecasts. -
@ScottLeibrand@ESYudkowsky If bets are always a joint function of preferences and forecasts, it makes more sense to define "belief" as... -
@ScottLeibrand@ESYudkowsky ...a mixture of desire and rational calculation about probabilities, rather than just the latter. -
@Noahpinion@ESYudkowsky Risk preferences aside, prediction bets can be made fairly independent of someone's preferences on a topic. -
@ScottLeibrand@ESYudkowsky But risk preferences *are* the key preferences for bets, you can't just wave them aside. -
@Noahpinion@ESYudkowsky Risk preferences systemically affect all bets a person makes, so you can calibrate and compare different beliefs. - 4 more replies
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.