@Noahpinion Your argument reminds me most of @ESYudkowsky's http://lesswrong.com/lw/r/no_really_ive_deceived_myself/ … @lesswrong post.
@Noahpinion Cheering a sports team doesn't have different consequences given different possibilities. Betting does, so reveals belief.
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@ESYudkowsky But bets reveal a combination of 1) belief, 2) risk, and 3) risk aversion. Can't disentangle 1 from 2/3. -
@ESYudkowsky ...and because we can't disentangle, this notion of "belief" can't generally be observed, even by the "believer" herself. -
@ESYudkowsky Actually, what I said is only true if we assume a decision rule (like VNM utility). If not, that's another free parameter!
End of conversation
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