What strange inputs other people require instead of the empty string, to arrive at conclusions that they could have figured out for themselves earlier; if they hadn't waited around for an obvious whack on the head that would predictably arrive later. I didn't update off this.
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I just want the info. There’s probably good reasons we don’t have it already, but I’d least like to be vaguely gestured towards those.
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AGI will eventually discover humanities collective browser history and all parties involved will agree that a swift and painless extinction is probably for the best
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Have you written anywhere public about your probability distribution for AI capabilities?
When I've talked to friends on the subject that's frequently where the question comes down to, and it's a difficult one to answer.
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Is it possible to track how much of the change is from new forecasters vs. how much is from old forecasters changing their predictions?
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Does this conclusion cause you to update at all towards Transformers being capable of scaling to general intelligence without significant further algorithmic insights? (IIRC, you expressed in the past that you considered that unlikely, so I'm curious if this changes that.)
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As the creator for a bunch of AGI questions on Metaculus, my impression is that people's updates are not very consistent across the variety of AGI operationalizations, and this particular update probably doesn't represent a consensus update among Metaculites.
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