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This was exactly my reaction. Suicide my ass. https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/1160177514716774401 …
Prior probability on prison suicide is higher than I expected but still appears to be around 0.1%.
To put in perspective my original reaction: I've read in the news about a lot of people awaiting trial for newsworthy crimes. The first time I recall hearing about "suicide" is the one who might have incriminated the broadest range of powerful people across multiple nations.
yeh but the prior probability on “being murdered by billionaires who belong to a global cabal of ultra-powerful sex criminals” is much lower
Overly specific. It only takes one billionaire or Saudi Arabian senior political official or other possibility, who could easily be in an uncoordinated "lured and blackmailed by Epstein" set of candidates rather than any kind of global cabal, etcetera.
The probability of being murdered by an elite conspiracy is almost certainly microscopic in comparison.
Even if it wasn't a direct murder, the amount of incompetence required to let such a high profile prisoner commit suicide after he had presumably already tried a week or so prior is pretty staggering, and suspiciously so.
Best study I found reported 13 per 100,000 (20 years ago) https://sci-hub.tw/10.1177/107834580200900308 …
I hope that's not your prior. It should be much higher once you take into account the particulars of the prisoner and their situation. (Not arguing against your conclusion)
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