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ESYudkowsky's profile
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Verified account
@ESYudkowsky

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Eliezer YudkowskyVerified account

@ESYudkowsky

Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant, but sometimes I tweet about them anyway.

Joined June 2014

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    Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 4 Dec 2018

    Eliezer Yudkowsky Retweeted Steve Stewart-Williams

    The same facts are compatible with different simple theories... that all retrodict the facts exactly and make isomorphic future predictions?https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1069756255835586560 …

    Eliezer Yudkowsky added,

    0:25
    Steve Stewart-Williams @SteveStuWill
    The same facts are compatible with any number of different theories. https://www.facebook.com/groups/PsychologicalDynamics/permalink/2076196065971778/ … pic.twitter.com/BEsY7vPVXC
    5:46 AM - 4 Dec 2018
    • 30 Retweets
    • 123 Likes
    • JoHenry Matthew crytobrowns Neil Grant the_pointiest_of_bois Miguel Xochicale Oliver Hulesch Atigraphics Josh You
    5 replies 30 retweets 123 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 4 Dec 2018

        I know this is pedantic and spoilsport, but the quibble matters. Equally regular-looking theories that exactly fit the past facts often do not give different predictions for the future. Hence the whole issue with “interpretations” of quantum mechanics.

        3 replies 4 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 4 Dec 2018

        The classic rabbit-versus-duck picture exhibits different informal theories that both messily fit the data. Pedantically, that *is* a substantive difference about when to warn people to beware the unconsidered alternative explanations.

        2 replies 1 retweet 21 likes
        Show this thread
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Lambda Duck‏ @Anka213 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Is there a name for models like these that gives isomorphic predictions?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Eliezer Yudkowsky‏Verified account @ESYudkowsky 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @Anka213

        I was wondering that too. I don't know of one? Would be nice to have terms for both "two equivalent models" and "an equivalence class of models that give isomorphic predictions (even if the models aren't equally simple or regular)".

        2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
      4. John Buridan‏ @GrandBastion 29 Dec 2018
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky @Anka213

        I don't know if this applies, but Artem Kaznatcheev https://egtheory.wordpress.com/  would probably classify these types of models as interchangeable 'abstrations' as opposed to 'hueristic models' or 'idealizations.'

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Michael Keenan‏ @michaelkeenan_0 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        Charitably: the dots represent the easily-observed part of the phenomenon, and the lines are hard-to-detect but important actually-in-the-map parts that we want to predict (maybe they're deadly lasers).

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Michael Keenan‏ @michaelkeenan_0 26 Dec 2018
        Replying to @michaelkeenan_0 @ESYudkowsky

        Argh I meant actually-in-the-territory, not actually-in-the-map. Hard to distinguish those two sometimes.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. Shchvova‏ @Svoka 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        We often confuse model with reality. For example air waves. We have a pretty good model with pressure differentials propagating. But we shouldn’t forget that pressure, air or sound is a name we come up to make reality possible to reason about.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Chris Grezo‏ @chrisgrezo 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @ESYudkowsky

        In this particular example I think maybe yes? On a related note is the work of W. V. Quine of interest in your circles?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. pumpkin spies‏ @realjdburnett 4 Dec 2018
        Replying to @chrisgrezo @ESYudkowsky

        In this example, certainly. Of course, it was carefully designed for this very purpose

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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