It'll actually end up being an overestimate. 20 * 20 * 20 ~ 10000 not 100000.
...wantonly giving up things you say you want, we can see your behavior as corresponding to this shape. Conversely, if we can't see your behavior as corresponding to this shape, you must be visibly shooting yourself in the foot.'"
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So, my rephrasing would be something like: if a situation behaves in a way such that probability/decision theory works well when you apply it to that situation, then you should definitely do so. Which I agree with! It’s great when it works! In most situations, it doesn’t apply.
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But when is it that you can't apply it?(By applying it I mean approximating it). What heuristics or methods are there that are superior to DT sometimes that are not approximations of it?
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DT simply doesn’t apply unless there’s a global metric of goodness (and there isn’t one). When there is a large space of actions and outcomes, it can’t even be “approximated” by any physical agent. And, there is no general theory even of what it *means* to approximate DT.
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I'll have to disagree with that, I'll blog about this soon, twitter is not the best place for arguing.
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I look forward to reading it! Heading to bed now. Thank you all for an interesting conversation! Good night!
End of conversation
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This doesn't mean you can do any better! It may just mean that you're dumb and you have no choice but to shoot yourself in the foot in a way visible to somebody smarter. But it's a theory with all sorts of suggestions about how to shoot ourselves in the feet *less*.
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Some things we agree about strongly: There are situations in which probability/decision theory works well, and there it can be extraordinarily valuable. In those situations, empirically, people who don’t know the theory often make bad decisions. They should learn the theory!
End of conversation
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Why not just check for foot-shooting directly, if it's so visible?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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