If you think Elon is mostly just lucky, you have no judgment. Period
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Being a good salesman is a specific type of genius and it's not the type of engineering genius the fanboys think he has
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What makes Elon so successful is that he has both.
His real super power is inspiring and leading engineers.
That requires knowing engineering and also selling a vision.
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The jury's out on the LIDAR thing. I agree the Model 3 ramp up was a miss.
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When those companies achieve wide-scale deployment of driverless cars they can claim victory. But not before then.
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I don't see how that's a conclusive argument. It just seems like one argument in favor of LIDAR.
Yes, figuring out 3d scene from 2d image is computationally expensive. Cost of compute continues to drop though. I don't see how that's a deal breaker.
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Yes. And humans do it, so we know it's possible.
It's possible that Tesla (and comma.ai) won't be able to make the models good/fast enough in time to scale faster than all the LIDAR approaches. Time will tell.
Human vision has more information. Eye focusing as distance measurement. Humans have built in image stabilization while automotive cameras don’t. And vision isn’t great in many circumstances. Elon’s LiDAR decision was about price not tech. He is a great engineer for the ignorants
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