Eric Basmajian

@EPBResearch

EPB Macro Research | Pervalle Global

New York, NY
Vrijeme pridruživanja: veljača 2015.

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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 11 sati

    Small headline beat but mixed underneath. Employment, prices down, Biz act and new orders up.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    The biggest Canary in the ADP Jobs reports remains -> Small Biz (1-19 Employees) that’s now -0.00003827% YoY.. Flat as a pancake & at levels commensurate with previous recessions. Construction & Mfg. are in major YoY Deceleration. All Bullish.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    ADP, year-on-year: (via )

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  4. prije 13 sati

    Service sector employment growth firmed to 1.7% year over year, according to ADP.

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  5. prije 13 sati

    Construction employment growth has fallen from 5.7% in the middle of 2018 to 2.1% in January 2020, according to ADP.

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  6. prije 13 sati

    Manufacturing employment growth continues to decline, falling to 0.1% year over year according to ADP.

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  7. prije 13 sati

    Employment growth nudged higher in January to 1.5% year over year according to ADP. Still one of the weakest growth rates this expansion.

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  8. 4. velj

    The 2-year annualized growth rate in nominal consumption + investment ("core GDP") peaked 30% lower this cycle compared to the prior two. Lower interest rates have followed the trend in weaker growth.

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  9. 4. velj
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  10. 4. velj
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  11. 2. velj

    Since 2010, the 30-year yield has fallen from nearly 5% to 1.999%.

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij
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  13. 31. sij
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  14. 31. sij

    It looks even worse in nominal dollars.

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  15. 31. sij

    30-Year: 1.9996%

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    31. sij
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  17. 31. sij

    Real personal income growth excluding transfer payments declined sharply to just 1.7%.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Yields on 2-year Treasuries are now the lowest since September 2017.

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  19. 30. sij

    In today's GDP report, the growth rate in real personal consumption + private investment slowed sharply. The core of the US economy posted the weakest rate of y/y growth since 2016 and the third-worst reading since 2010. The bond market priced-in this slowdown in growth.

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  20. 30. sij
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