Emad

@EMostaque

CEO Symmitree, using cutting-edge tech and finance to Disrupt Poverty. Founder Ananas, applied computational theology. Ex HF CIO, PM, VC, etc

London, England
symmitree.com
Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2011.
10 fotografija ili videozapisa Fotografije i videozapisi

Tweetovi

Blokirali ste korisnika/cu @EMostaque

Jeste li sigurni da želite vidjeti te tweetove? Time nećete deblokirati korisnika/cu @EMostaque

  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    15. sij

    My modest proposal to help end poverty, a thread.

    1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  2. 3. velj

    Shanghai now 203, Beijing 191 for confirmed , 1 death in each. I think 500+ (perhaps 1000+) is the level at which they go from slow down to lock down, so in the next week or so. What do you think?

    As more cities shut down as cases go from 100-500 in them (eg Shanghai 80, Beijing 90) forecasts will be 2mbpd+ demand shock to oil. OPEC+ can't really react to that with current policy tools, particularly as the period of shut down will be uncertain as outbreak continues
    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
    Poništi
  3. 2. velj

    Flight to safety part 1 No coronavirus in wall st Yet

    Now green
    Prikaži ovu nit
    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
    Poništi
  4. 2. velj

    Reports coming out Chinese oil demand already down an unprecedented 20%, over 2 million barrels a day. This means the below may be conservative, watch out below on crude as beyond current capability to absorb

    We can expect that oil demand figures will be slashed by 1.5-2mbpd just as Libyan (and other!) oil comes back to the market This will become the median due to the uncertainty that will grip as it really comes home to roost so to speak, even if R0s are lower
    Prikaži ovu nit
    5 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    This account of a pregnant woman's death from an "unknown" pneumonia in a city close to Wuhan is terrifying, enraging, and heart-breaking. Her husband took her to 4 different hospitals before she got real treatment.

    7 replies 94 proslijeđena tweeta 174 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  6. 2. velj

    As I've noted one case in a school and you'll need to shut it for a month. From current data (which is hopefully wrong) this will come in waves and nobody will want to take a chance, even if only elders are dying of it. Could be mass trial of online edu, a provider should step up

    ICYMI: Taiwan is taking very seriously. Delaying school reopening by two weeks. Employers are required to let employees who are parents of students aged 12 or below take time off during the 2 weeks to look after their children
    1 reply 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  7. 2. velj

    Twitter quiz: identify the horror movie

    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
    Poništi
  8. 2. velj

    There's something to be said that is trending with 29k tweets in the UK alone versus 🧐🤓😷

    1 reply 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  9. 2. velj

    Watch for the Sahel and Maghreb in particular to come under intense pressure in the coming years, there is a reason jihadist murders are spiking again

    Josh is correct, the Sahel & Maghreb are on the edge of structural failure (Mali, Niger as well as Burkino Faso spiking, others could go fast). COIN forces aren't goign to stick around.. Expect the next wave of takfiri extremism to also be more coordinated and deadly.
    Prikaži ovu nit
    2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  10. 2. velj

    Climate change in Africa + growing population + collapsing governments mean this is likely to tick up sharply unfortunately. When you can't be fed properly path of least resistance is to take others food, we need large scale action and response asap to this before it spikes.

    For decades the world was making progress against undernourishment. This has ended and hunger is on the rise. A good report by the FAO on a very bad development
    Prikaži ovu nit
    1 reply 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  11. 2. velj

    Every metropolis should be doing some contingency planning for similar right now. Hopefully never needed, but the high rate of severe complications (2,000+ Wuhan) means ICUs won't be able to keep up if we see it spread further and there won't be much time to react if it does.

    1:51
    Huoshenshan Hospital has been completed in on Sunday. Only 10 days to build •4,000+ workers •1000s of equipment •days and nights of work •34,000-square-meter •1000 beds available on Monday
    Prikaži ovu nit
    1 proslijeđeni tweet 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  12. 2. velj

    As more cities shut down as cases go from 100-500 in them (eg Shanghai 80, Beijing 90) forecasts will be 2mbpd+ demand shock to oil. OPEC+ can't really react to that with current policy tools, particularly as the period of shut down will be uncertain as outbreak continues

    ANALYSIS: The loss of much of China’s oil demand growth will crush the producer group under the weight of falling oil prices, unless, collectively, they cut their output further | via
    3 proslijeđena tweeta 4 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  13. 2. velj

    At 500-1000 cases cities will likely, completely rationally, shut down. I estimate 1-2 weeks for Beijing, Shanghai, 2-4 weeks for Singapore. This will be at the point Wuhan cases should tail off but apparent death rate increase. Unprecedented in modern times.

    Non-China confirmed infections ... Japan 20 Thailand 19 Singapore 18 South Korea 15 Hong Kong 14 Australia 12 Taiwan 10 (108 of 153 non-China total) IF (if) the virus go exponential in any/all of these countries, will the world isolate them like its now doing with China?
    1 reply 4 proslijeđena tweeta 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  14. 1. velj

    The precautionary principle repeated in a fractal manner is why you can't compare this in terms of societal, economic and market impact to SARS, MERS, H1N1 etc

    1 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  15. 1. velj

    Note from current stats kids & adults fine, elderly most at risk. Nobody can take a chance though, as Wuhan curves replicate elsewhere need to shut down flights, airports, schools, cinemas etc as a precaution. This is unprecedented but no official can afford to do otherwise.

    1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  16. 1. velj

    Simple thought experiment to show how fear will accelerate: If there was a confirmed case in your kids' school would they stay open? Given virality & asymptomatic transmission unlikely. How long would they close for? Minimum 1 month, others would close in precaution.

    Between meetings Davos last week and with epidemiologist friends this week I now have enough information on the outbreak to be seriously concerned. My primary skills from years of hedge funding and macro is pulling out what matters and here is what matters 1/
    Prikaži ovu nit
    8 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  17. 31. sij

    there's probably a better way to do this but it feels like there is a strong core for an uncertain issue that could be iterated around as a collective brain? Thoughts and RTs appreciated

    1 reply 2 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  18. 31. sij

    A collective intelligence experiment: Why (and how) to be worried about : I've laid out a core argument that I will iterate on. Feel free to comment, add links and resources for and against either on this thread or in the document.

    8 proslijeđenih tweetova 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  19. 31. sij

    This image from on the outbreak is really important wrt psychology described below: Poor guy may have died of other causes and it seems elderly most impacted but rapid death means nobody will risk further spread and be extra cautious

    Between meetings Davos last week and with epidemiologist friends this week I now have enough information on the outbreak to be seriously concerned. My primary skills from years of hedge funding and macro is pulling out what matters and here is what matters 1/
    Prikaži ovu nit
    1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Poništi
  20. 30. sij

    Note much of the above is on the *psychology* of response and actions as opposed to refined forecasts or models of spread etc. In investing what we care about is price versus value, and psychology can go dark or giddy really really quickly depending on the central narrative

    9 replies 8 proslijeđenih tweetova 129 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Prikaži ovu nit
    Poništi
  21. 30. sij

    Note Italy has just banned *all* flights to and from China. Given how infectious this clearly is what is the probability this won't appear in dozens more countries who will do the same? And for how long given each diagnosed case in every country will lead to more within weeks?

    Between meetings Davos last week and with epidemiologist friends this week I now have enough information on the outbreak to be seriously concerned. My primary skills from years of hedge funding and macro is pulling out what matters and here is what matters 1/
    Prikaži ovu nit
    3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
    Poništi

@EMostaque još nije objavio nijedan Tweet.

Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.

Twitter je možda preopterećen ili ima kratkotrajnih poteškoća u radu. Pokušajte ponovno ili potražite dodatne informacije u odjeljku Status Twittera.

    Možda bi vam se svidjelo i ovo:

    ·