EHSANI2

For Erdogan, signing the #Idlib “De-escalation Zone”’ agreement with Putin was the easy part. His real challenge will be when it comes to delivery

Back in 1976-1980, #Syria lived through an insurgency by the Moslem Brothers who tried to topple the state back then. Nearly 30 years later, groups associated with the Moslem Brotherhood ideology are now referred to as moderate & mainstream. Such is the current state of affairs

This Piece is essentially the standard call for increased US military intervention to stave off “trust me jihadis will be back so better stay and take care of business now”. Reminder: AQ led the rebellion that took over #Idlib over 3 years ago.https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1042021964053925889 …

Jihadis will inherit the rebellion? Wait, who led the battle to take Idlib in 1st place in early 2015? To suggest/hope that jihadis will rise from ashes & own the rebellion so that you remind us With “told you so” overlooks fact that these groups have already been with ushttps://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1042021964053925889 …

7-Armed men inside #Idlib now are going to have to find themselves a purpose other than stage attacks on State or Army positions. Indeed, in all likelihood, this deal if anything places the opp under a tighter leash than before the deal was announced

6-But what the Opp lost also is that they will be forced to give up access to prized highway Syrian State has been deprived of. Indeed, access to M4/M5 highways was one of the strategic aims of #Idlib operations. The state now gained this access without firing a shot

5-This deal sets the stage for eliminating the most hardened fighters inside the armed groups. The definition of terrorists will come from Intel agencies according to Turkish FM. And, it is now Turkey's responsibility to remove "terrorists & all heavy weapons" by Nov 10

4-In effect, this new deal largely pulls the plug on ability of armed groups to attack the Sy State. Practically speaking, it is no different than any previous freeze/reconciliation deal. The only difference is that Turkey this time made the deal with the Russians on their behalf

3-Let's not also forget that from early days of Geneva's political transition talks, the only political activity left now is an attempt to establish constitutional committee. All else has been shelved. Now that we established the general status of the opp, let's discuss this deal

2-Let's step back first. This is an Opp that was formed with goal of toppling the State (diplomatic language of Geneva process called it political transition). Nothing short of above was acceptable to this opp. As of yesterday, mere avoidance of strikes is now seen as a win

Thread on status of Syrian Opposition post the "demilitarized zone" agreement in #Idlib . Thus far, most commentary has regarded the deal as a win for the Opp since risk of imminent strike on the province has been avoided. But is this deal really a positive for opp? Answer: No=>

RUSSIA: ALL RADICAL GROUPS MUST LEAVE #IDLIB BY OCT. 15 Best of luck

Without the imminent risk of strikes, Bilal pulls out a smart looking sports jackethttps://twitter.com/OGNreports/status/1042020520642994177 …

Turkey will use drones to monitor armed groups in #Idlib Good Luck

#ISRAEL HOLDS ASSAD FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR PLANE INCIDENT: IDF

#Israel Expresses Sorrow for Deaths of Russian Aircrew Downed By Syrian Anti-aircraft Fire, Also Blames Hezbollah,

CAVUSOGLU SAYS INTEL ORGANIZATIONS TO ASSESS RADICALS IN #IDLIB