Andrew FoxallVerified account

Quite an achievement by @ChelseaFC to release a statement about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without actually using the words “Russia” or “invasion”.https://twitter.com/ChelseaFC/status/1497868836464476160 …

… as warmongers, neocons, new Cold Warriors etc in Western capitals (but never those in the Baltics or Central / Eastern Europe). Now is not the time to pick apart why this was; there’ll be years, perhaps decades, to do so. For the moment, Slava Ukraini! 2/2

It brings me no pleasure saying this, but I was right when I warned consistently about the threat Putin poses. So too were others, many more prominent than I am (eg, @Billbrowder, @edwardlucas, @anneapplebaum, @lukeharding1968). Yet for at least a decade we were dismissed… 1/2

Ok. Il’l bite. Russia “invaded” Ukraine seven years ago, and has occupied territory (Crimea, plus Donetsk and Luhansk) and waged a war since then.https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1382042470683398147 …

Finally, I am grateful to Sir Andrew Wood, former UK Ambassador to Russia and Associate Fellow at @CHRussiaEurasia, for his generous Foreword to the report, as well as @MatBoulegue, @ALanoszka and others who provided feedback on drafts.

6. In responding to Russia’s attempts to position the UK, Britain needs statespersons who will defend and promote the national interest using frank but professional language -- including about the nature of the Russian ‘threat’ and the nature of Russia’s current regime.

5. UK should also recognise the continued importance of its alliances and membership of multilateral orgs. If the UK wants, in the future, to be able to call on support similar to that it brokered in March 2018 then it has to make preparations now and be willing to help others.

4. Maintaining the UK’s current stance towards Russia is important, but it will be difficult. To implement an effective Russia policy, UK policymakers would do well to start by taking the focus off Russia and putting it on the UK, including by adopting FARA-like legislation.

3. UK responses to this have reflected the conventional wisdom at the time. In the early 2010s, the responses were defensive and sought not to 'provoke' Russia. Since 2014, the responses have been more offensive / assertive - an approach codified in HMG's 2017 Russia Strategy.

2. Proceeding from the belief that Russia and the UK are not equals, Russia’s leaders have sought to ‘position’ the UK and its role in the international order in ways that benefit Moscow and are detrimental to London, including as "a small island no-one pays attention to" (2013)

1. Russia’s leaders do not believe the UK is their country’s equal in the international order. For them, Russia is a ‘great power’ and UK is a ‘2nd tier’ power. Combined with Russia’s ‘zero-sum’ understanding of power, this belief prompts Russia to subvert and destabilise the UK.

And that should, of course, be @HJS_Org rather than @hjs_or.