Theodore R. Johnson

@DrTedJ

Senior Fellow | Retired Navy | Public Policy Prof. of Practice | Fmr , fellow | ΩΨΦ

DC metro area
Vrijeme pridruživanja: rujan 2012.

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  1. prije 2 sata

    Why should he be? Accusations about the Bidens have been in the news for weeks now, which is all the president wanted from Ukraine in the first place - just an announcement of an investigation, not an actual one. Seems to me that mission was accomplished.

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  2. prije 10 sati

    Agreed. For all the complaining about the unfairness of Iowa going first, there's quite a bit of clamor to find out what Iowans think today. If you don't think Iowa should have undue influence on the presidential primary, you just got your wish. Enjoy it & go vote in your state

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    “No candidate in this field is Barack Obama and this ain’t 2008.”

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  4. 3. velj

    A reminder that Trump did worse with black voters than every Republican since 1964 that wasn’t running against Barack Obama. Between 1968 and 2004, GOP averaged about 11% with black voters - Trump received just 8%.

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  5. 2. velj

    I mean, this is like a Veterans Day observance

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  6. 2. velj

    With the number of Americans watching, the numerous of odes to the flag & country, and even the president and presidential candidates getting air time.... the Super Bowl is easily one of the most civil religious events in America today.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    It IS very interesting… So here we go 1/n

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  8. 2. velj
    Tweet je nedostupan.
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  9. 2. velj

    AND on Thursday I'm teaching a graduate course on presidential primaries and Friday and Saturday, I'm teaching a doctoral course on constitutional debates, including US v Nixon and Bush v Gore. Lecturing in the outer band of this political typhoon will be tons of fun.

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. velj

    Lest you think we were done polling Iowa... Updated / estimates: 📊Biden 25% 📊Sanders 25% 📊Buttigieg 21% 📊Warren 16% 📊Klobuchar 5% All other candidates < 5% Among likely caucus goers surveyed Jan 22-31, 2020

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  11. 2. velj

    Lastly, Steyer has been airing in mostly uncontested space. When the other campaigns' ads appear the week prior to SC, ad returns are diminishing & effect half-lives shorter. Voters' assets - the vote - can't be partitioned. So the cost to win it skyrockets as the election nears

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  12. 2. velj

    Lots of scholarship on this, and folks way more qualified than me to discuss it in depth. But this one paragraph from Gerber, Gimpel, Green, & concisely convey the point. Full article here:

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  13. 2. velj

    1) The ads must be damn near ubiquitous. 2) The must air in the right time slots during the right days of the week, which means lots of $$$ req'd 3) The effects are real & pronounced, BUT they are short-lived. 4) They're singularly insufficient, but exceptional complements

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  14. 2. velj

    On Steyer, black voters, and the power of ads, this is a real question: Can ads move people? The short answer is YES, esp TV ads. You can improve by several points w/ good ad buys. A few rules govern the effects though...

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  15. 2. velj

    Here's campaign ad analysis for Steyer. Check out his buys - heavy on SC, IA, and NV. For whatever reason, they seem to be having much more effect in NV and SC than IA.

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  16. 2. velj

    I keep hearing this! Billboard, television, radio - Steyer is carpeting the state with ads.

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  17. 2. velj

    My sense is black SC voters will not be Steyer's lifeline, esp if Biden is tied for delegates w/ Sanders coming into the SC primary - and Steyer has 0. The wildcard? Maybe NV if he cracks the top 4? No matter - this analysis & a dime will get you a single jolly rancher, so.../

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  18. 2. velj

    For now, we know Steyer is flooding the airwaves in SC, and that appears to have the intended effect. But we also know black voters - more than any other bloc of primary voters - will be watching Iowa to determine which campaigns are most viable.

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  19. 2. velj

    Just this morning, it was reported Steyer picked up an endorsement from the SC Caucus for Black Women. If Steyer fails to crack the top 5 in IA, NH, & NV, will those 1/4 black SC voters stick with him? That's the open question.

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  20. 2. velj

    This is THE story in SC right now - black voters trending toward Steyer. A friend who's an educated black woman & SC native told me months ago that Steyer was on the upswing there.

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