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Why should he be? Accusations about the Bidens have been in the news for weeks now, which is all the president wanted from Ukraine in the first place - just an announcement of an investigation, not an actual one. Seems to me that mission was accomplished.https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1224804831807836160 …
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Agreed. For all the complaining about the unfairness of Iowa going first, there's quite a bit of clamor to find out what Iowans think today. If you don't think Iowa should have undue influence on the presidential primary, you just got your wish. Enjoy it & go vote in your statehttps://twitter.com/Sifill_LDF/status/1224660189569339393 …
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Theodore R. Johnson proslijedio/la je Tweet
“No candidate in this field is Barack Obama and this ain’t 2008.” https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/election/article239842498.html …
#SC2020Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
A reminder that Trump did worse with black voters than every Republican since 1964 that wasn’t running against Barack Obama. Between 1968 and 2004, GOP averaged about 11% with black voters - Trump received just 8%.https://twitter.com/giannocaldwell/status/1224158953119997952 …
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I mean, this is like a Veterans Day observance
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With the number of Americans watching, the numerous of odes to the flag & country, and even the president and presidential candidates getting air time.... the Super Bowl is easily one of the most civil religious events in America today.
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Theodore R. Johnson proslijedio/la je Tweet
It IS very interesting… So here we go 1/nhttps://twitter.com/ezraklein/status/1224008671144955905 …
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We’re clearly in the upside down. https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1224064753330544641 …
Tweet je nedostupan.Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
AND on Thursday I'm teaching a graduate course on presidential primaries and Friday and Saturday, I'm teaching a doctoral course on constitutional debates, including US v Nixon and Bush v Gore. Lecturing in the outer band of this political typhoon will be tons of fun.https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status/1223984084277432324 …
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Theodore R. Johnson proslijedio/la je Tweet
Lest you think we were done polling Iowa... Updated
@CBSNews/@YouGovUS estimates:
Biden 25%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 21%
Warren 16%
Klobuchar 5%
All other candidates < 5%
Among likely caucus goers surveyed Jan 22-31, 2020pic.twitter.com/j8OZwKHCKs
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Lastly, Steyer has been airing in mostly uncontested space. When the other campaigns' ads appear the week prior to SC, ad returns are diminishing & effect half-lives shorter. Voters' assets - the vote - can't be partitioned. So the cost to win it skyrockets as the election nears
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Lots of scholarship on this, and folks way more qualified than me to discuss it in depth. But this one paragraph from Gerber, Gimpel, Green, &
@daronrshaw concisely convey the point. Full article here: https://www.jstor.org/stable/41480831 pic.twitter.com/J7CREeR2uq
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1) The ads must be damn near ubiquitous. 2) The must air in the right time slots during the right days of the week, which means lots of $$$ req'd 3) The effects are real & pronounced, BUT they are short-lived. 4) They're singularly insufficient, but exceptional complements
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On Steyer, black voters, and the power of ads, this is a real question: Can ads move people? The short answer is YES, esp TV ads. You can improve by several points w/ good ad buys. A few rules govern the effects though...https://twitter.com/djlavoie/status/1223985883210223620 …
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Here's
@FiveThirtyEight campaign ad analysis for Steyer. Check out his buys - heavy on SC, IA, and NV. For whatever reason, they seem to be having much more effect in NV and SC than IA.https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-campaign-ads/#candidate=tom-steyer&market=sc …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
I keep hearing this! Billboard, television, radio - Steyer is carpeting the state with ads.https://twitter.com/lalapapawawa/status/1223983687404007424 …
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My sense is black SC voters will not be Steyer's lifeline, esp if Biden is tied for delegates w/ Sanders coming into the SC primary - and Steyer has 0. The wildcard? Maybe NV if he cracks the top 4? No matter - this analysis & a dime will get you a single jolly rancher, so.../
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For now, we know Steyer is flooding the airwaves in SC, and that appears to have the intended effect. But we also know black voters - more than any other bloc of primary voters - will be watching Iowa to determine which campaigns are most viable.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/us/politics/tom-steyer-millions-south-carolina.html …
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Just this morning, it was reported Steyer picked up an endorsement from the SC Caucus for Black Women. If Steyer fails to crack the top 5 in IA, NH, & NV, will those 1/4 black SC voters stick with him? That's the open question.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-steyer/steyer-wins-black-democratic-group-endorsement-in-south-carolina-idUSKBN1ZW0D6 …
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This is THE story in SC right now - black voters trending toward Steyer. A friend who's an educated black woman & SC native told me months ago that Steyer was on the upswing there.https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/1223980233260457984 …
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