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Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

What is happening with wildfires in the Arctic? This tweet from

@m_parrington

got me looking at the

@NASAEarth

imagery, and it really is 'unprecedented'; a word that we should not use lightly. [THREAD 1/4]

Quote Tweet

Mark Parrington

@m_parrington

Jul 2, 2019

Unprecedented #wildfire activity in the #Arctic Circle in June 2019, with notable widespread fires in Sakha Republic, Russia for much of the last 3 weeks, as estimated with #Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service GFAS data based on MODIS

obs confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/CA

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10:03 AM · Jul 3, 2019

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At least 5 of these fires appear to be bigger than 100,000 hectares (these are megafires). The landscapes on fire appear to be peat bogs in Siberia, most north of the Arctic circle. [2/4]

Adam Vaughan and 2 others

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 3, 2019

This animation shows a fire burning at 69.1°N, 138.2°E, from 19th June through to 28th June. At its largest on 28 June, it extends 50 km × 25 km (125,000 hectares) [3/4]

GIF

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 3, 2019

May 2019 was 3–5°C warmer than the long-term average in Siberia, and June 2019 was easily the hottest June on record, globally. These temperatures might represent a threshold for wildfire activity in the Arctic circle. [4/4]

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 3, 2019

Fire 'invasions' into the Arctic Circle (particularly across Russia) were predicted 10 years ago in this paper by Krawchuk et al. (2009). It will be very interesting to see the June 2019 full month active fires when they are available.

and here is the link to the paper:

journals.plos.org

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may...

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 7, 2019

These fires are still burning (7 July) 2 weeks later... (red spots are fires detected from satellites, you can also see the smoke plumes) 🔥🛰️ The northernmost fire is at 70.4° North.

Are they unprecedented in terms of area as well as FRP?

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 3, 2019

I think this is difficult to answer due to persistent cloud cover issues & burnt area products. However in these fairly homogeneous landscapes, and given the FRP spike is so huge, I'd be very surprised if this didn't equate to burnt area as well.

Craig Hope

@wildfire_craig

Jul 3, 2019

Do you know the cause of these fires?

Dr Thomas Smith

@DrTELS

Jul 7, 2019

Hi Craig, most likely natural (lightning, although self ignition of peat is possible, but not clear how that could lead to a surface flaming fire)