Simon Evans

China "dominate[s] global coal trends", says @IEA, and not hard to see why It's pledged to peak CO2 by 2030 but height of peak and path either side are critical unknowns 2/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-does-chinas-new-paris-agreement-pledge-mean-for-climate-change …pic.twitter.com/dWn3UINu3e

In terms of expected changes over the near term, IEA indicates it's really a story of rapid growth in China (which was mainly in past, during H1 2021) The IEA also expects growth in India…but ongoing declines in the US/EU 3/ https://twitter.com/laurimyllyvirta/status/1471481172563795976 …pic.twitter.com/ORhQHPZ7C1

So, after huge shortterm surge, IEA expects global coal use to plateau (at record-high levels) Effectively, it'd be a decade-long plateau (see chart) In contrast, 1.5C needs a rapid & immediate decline – and unabated coal falling 98% by 2050 4/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/iea-renewables-should-overtake-coal-within-five-years-to-secure-1-5c-goal …pic.twitter.com/RSRYnasITm

The @IEA has a pretty pessimistic take… "all evidence indicates a widening gap between political ambitions and targets on one side and the realities of the current energy system on the other" 5/ https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2021 …pic.twitter.com/KyV1RK4eia

OTOH, this @IEA coal market report only forecasts 3yrs to 2024, whereas previous editions used to do 5yrs – why? Seems based on argument that uncertainty is too great due to "the current speed of policy and market changes[, which] is unprecedented" 6/pic.twitter.com/jUBkbKbqYx

The IEA coal forecast is higher than last year, but still much lower than those issued over the last decade So worth noting, on top of clear uncertainty mentioned in prev tweet, how IEA has historically underestimated renewables 7/ https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1466006159178055682 …pic.twitter.com/Rze1l3gdwI

This is a key chart from the report, showing how coal power growth or decline is a balance btwn growth of demand (+coal) vs renewables (-coal) After this yr, IEA expects renewables to cover nearly all incremental demand. What if they grow quicker? 8/ https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2021 …pic.twitter.com/YyM8C955T7

A few other observations… There's been a fairly big data adjustment since last yr, with global demand revised up ~2% in 2019 and ~3% in 2020 Most, but not all of that is in China, with big % adjustments also in India, SE Asia, Africa Thoughts? 9/pic.twitter.com/mPVJcMqN4T