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⚠️90%-120% FASTER—New model on the new #BA2 subvariant shows a ⬆️90% competitive growth advantage over vanilla BA1 #Omicron in Denmark🇩🇰. Worse, modeling in England🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 shows ⬆️~120% faster BA2 advantage over BA1. 🧵 HT (who correctly said Omicron was 5-6x Delta before)
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5) interestingly, BA2 once popped up months ago briefly in Denmark but then was displaced by Delta last summer. Somehow it’s back - perhaps it is more evasive but slower— but now evasive variant is more competitive? Unclear.
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6) I’ve been growing concerned about #BA2 for a while. Denmark ministry of health (SSI) also put out a warning last week it could be more transmissible.
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I’m concerned about the new #BA2 sub variant of #Omicron. In the left panel, you see it is surging (light green) to almost half of all Danish 🇩🇰 #Omicron cases—surpassing the old Omicron BA1 variant by a lot. Either it’s much faster transmission or it evades immunity even more.👇
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7) the #BA2 is also harder to find and decipher from other #Omicron because the shortcut SGTF signal of the BA2 isn’t there, while it is for Omicron BA1.
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8) the other bad news on #BA2 is that our old friend, S-Gene dropout shortcut (PCR) test, cannot identify the BA2 sub variant easily—while BA1 #Omicron is easily found these days with SGTF. This might make deciphering BA2 and Delta & other strains harder. github.com/cov-lineages/p
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8) Crap, the downplaying of BA2 has begun just like before. All while ignoring Danish data that shows 65% #BA2 dominance!
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NEW—3 cases of the new #BA2 subvariant of #Omicron has been found in Texas. But it’s again being stupidly downplayed by @CDCgov saying it’s very low. But it was once low in Denmark 🇩🇰 too! ➡️Today—BA2 is now fully dominant in 🇩🇰—65% of all #COVID19 now! 🧵 washingtonpost.com/health/2022/01
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I think we better warm to the fact that we will never get in front of this virus. I think long term studies of people who have contracted the virus are in order so we can get a better grip on some the effects. Treatment modalities need to be a focus now.
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