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DrEricDing's profile
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding
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@DrEricDing

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Eric Feigl-DingVerified account

@DrEricDing

Epidemiologist & health economist. Senior Fellow @FAScientists. Former 16 years @Harvard. @JohnsHopkins alum. COVID updates since Jan '20: http://nym.ag/3olszuo 

Washington DC & Virginia
fas.org/expert/eric-fe…
Joined January 2009

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    Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

    🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher #SARSCoV2 R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵 #COVID19 https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article …pic.twitter.com/rVWZPojMxO

    6:02 AM - 8 Apr 2020
    • 1,910 Retweets
    • 2,626 Likes
    • Michelle Ann Fritz tactical_blonde @CEDAWinLaw.com⚖️@CedawPT Rohit Cutting Tools Fire Merrick Garland, Save Democracy Juho Kekäläinen Jenny Fitz hrmedia1994 #記者クラブはいらない chu Terttu Iiskola
    124 replies 1,910 retweets 2,626 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        2) Implications: “The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. EG, threshold for combined vaccine efficacy & herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. #COVID19pic.twitter.com/DDPL78s9Nn

        3 replies 129 retweets 251 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        3) “At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).” #COVID19pic.twitter.com/ePGpVlYGYD

        18 replies 280 retweets 468 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        4) “Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed” #COVID19

        5 replies 132 retweets 340 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        5) this highlights the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine! ➡️ Translation: we need to now be even more vigilant than previously thought given the higher revised R0. #COVID19

        6 replies 123 retweets 353 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        6) “recent study based on structural analysis of the virus particles suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus, providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness of #SARSCoV2. #COVID19

        10 replies 106 retweets 258 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        7) Note that this R0 is much higher than the recent Imperial College review of published R0 of 3.87. Ergo, a 5.7 is on considerably different level of infectiousness. #COVID19 https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf …pic.twitter.com/EO0UAKsNqF

        11 replies 122 retweets 280 likes
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      8. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        8) clarifying that this is from a Los Alamos group’s reanalysis. But posted on CDC’s journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

        5 replies 57 retweets 185 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Eric Feigl-Ding‏Verified account @DrEricDing 8 Apr 2020

        9) And to be clear, R0 is the R reproductive number at time 0 before countermeasures. So this is not the R(effective) at current time under mitigation like distancing and testing+tracing+quarantine.

        25 replies 87 retweets 283 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
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      2. Blank‏ @Altered_Ego_one 8 Apr 2020

        Hmmm just the ones that seem to have the 'best' numbers by appearance though?? Do you trust Spain, Italy, France, or the UK?

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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