Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Senior Fellow @FAScientists / Harvard ‘07, JHopkins ‘04 / NYT-featured
whistleblower / Active #COVID19 Updates
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Epidemic tracing in WA— bad news—it seems yesterday’s new WA case #2 is directly descended from WA’s case #1 from January, via genetic analysis. Thus the world renowned geneticist below concludes that there’s likely “cryptic” stealth transmission in WA for over a month! #COVID19https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970442152472577 …
3) Thus, we need to know to what extent Case1 may have infected others besides Case2 in WA, given that Case2’s infected descended from Case1 genetically, but neither knew w/ each other. Researchers currently say “Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections”
2) Rewind -here was WA case1’s coronavirus test history (report from @NEJM), which showed Case1 had positive tests via nasal swabs, but had contradictory oral swab/other results. Notice Case 1’s oral test was negative on day 12 despite positive nasal. Shows maybe unstable test.pic.twitter.com/CDVPtfXrpJ
3) (repost) we need to know what extent Case1 may have infected others besides Case2 in WA, given that Case2’s infected descended from Case1 genetically, but neither knew w/ each other. Researchers currently say “Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections”
Okay, so they are related. #2 visited #1 and got infected. I'm relived we've tracked to patient #1 in the trasmission. That's good news and you can't assume the transmission date as #2 may have been visiting for a while.
I think it means #1 gave it to an unknown and it kept being transmitted to unknowns until it got to #2. Hence the assumption that it's been around for 6-weeks and a couple hundred people have been infected.
One of the cruise ship passengers left quarantine and was on their news there locally. Check out their local news, they've been reporting about it for over a month. He was "cleared" by the trump admin controlled cdc workers. It's why I've been ripping my hair out yelling on here
But that has nothing to do with this case. It's a separate other problem, but this virus is here whether we like it or not
Doesn’t that also mean the incubation period is greater than 14 days?
No, that doesn't follow. I think you're assuming Case 2 got it from Case 1. That is not what is being presented. Case 2 has a variant that is descendant from the variant in Case 1, which means it most likely spread through intermediate hosts.
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