2) This piece reports on 2 Lancet articles, one of which suggests very insidious symptomless transmission. The R0 attack rate still being pinned down, but initial reports of 2.5-3.8 is higher than SARS’s 2.0-3.5.https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/24/coronavirus-infections-no-symptoms-lancet-studies/ …
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3) the UK author’s paper stated that the “reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.” His words, not me ‘fear mongering’.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1 …
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4) I have published a lot of studies, including in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, as someone who has worked in academia for years. And I have been a whistleblower against big pharma in JAMA. I have never ever posted about end of world stuff and don’t ever intend to. https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TQ1na-MAAAAJ&hl=en …
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5) This coronavirus though, it’s R0 attack rate of 2.5 or 3.8 (still prelim) is super high. Much more people fly now than in 2003 SARS. While measles has higher R0, it has a vaccine
. Nobody has immunity to this new virus. Good R0 explainer:https://youtu.be/VrATMF_FB9M Prikaži ovu nit
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As a public health specialist I validate your description. You are not inciting fear, your description sadly is proportionate
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Thank you. I remember SARS, MERS, avian flu, TB, Ebola, and lots of other recent epidemics. I’ve been on TV for all of the outbreaks in last 10 years- and never once have I ever pulled the panic alarm and been this concerned... until now. Data only indicating it‘ll get much worse
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I was saying, better to err on the side of caution than regrets later on... They manner and timing of spread is alarming to say the least.
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I agree. I've been questioning my decision of sending screenshots of the post to family members and friends but I've settled that my decision was correct. Better to be safe than sorry.
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My father was a geneticist; and one of the first in the US many years ago. He predicted that something like this may happen and people would not take it seriously before it became a true epidemic. I appreciate your perspective.
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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/ Epidemiologist / Health Economist / Harvard ‘07 + Johns Hopkins ‘04 / Taught 15yrs HarvardSPH / NYT-feat. pharma whistleblower