Dr. Christine Eady MannVerified account

I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls

The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.

Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.

This tweet of yours proves my point. This is not a link to a poll. It’s a link to an aggregation model. This is illustrative of what I mean when I say people don’t understand polls and statistics. You linked to something that is not a poll.

Nope. You don’t understand what 538 does. They don’t do polling. The look the available polls for other places (hence the word polls) and they produce a statistical model to predict the probability of a candidates chance of winning.