New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday.
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I don’t believe any polls anymore. As a Dem we should ignore the polls
16 replies 3 retweets 115 likes -
Replying to @marybl62 @Redistrict and
The polls in general weren’t wrong in 2016. The interpretation of what the polls meant was wrong. We need to understand uncertainty measures: commonly 95% confidence levels which means even the one time in 20 the result falls outside the confidence interval the poll’s not wrong.
9 replies 4 retweets 93 likes -
Exactly. I’m not sure why so many people are having difficulty with this.
8 replies 2 retweets 43 likes -
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That’s correct, your interpretation is wrong. Per their analysis, Trump had an almost 10% chance of winning. That’s not a rare chance. That many/most people viewed it as a given that Hillary would win is not the fault of the polls or the forecasters.
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